Switch to:
GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with Harley-Davidson Inc $HOG.
More than 500,000 people have already joined GuruFocus to track the stocks they follow and exchange investment ideas.
Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Altman Z-Score
1.75 (As of Today)

Harley-Davidson Inc has a Z-score of 1.75, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress” Zones.
When Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones.
When Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey” Zones.

HOG' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.14   Max: 11.36
Current: 1.75


During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Altman Z-Score was 11.36. The lowest was 1.14. And the median was 5.86.


Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:


* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2017:
Total Assets was $10,282 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,238 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,557 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $0 Mil.
Pretax Income was 284.684 + 62.599 + 172.97 + 405.916 = $926 Mil.
Interest Expense was -7.673 + -7.702 + -7.706 + -7.094 = $-30 Mil.
Revenue was 650.706 + 1110.6 + 1274.813 + 1861.077 = $4,897 Mil.
Market Capitalization (Today) was $10,625 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $8,288 Mil.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(4237.92 - 2556.739)/10281.855

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pretax Income + Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(926.169 + -30.175)/10281.855

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Capitalization/Total Liabilities

X5=Revenue/Total Assets

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress” Zones - 1.81 < “Grey” Zones < 2.99 - “Safe” Zones

Harley-Davidson Inc has a Z-score of 1.75 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm’s assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm’s assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm’s assets.

Read more about Altman Z-score and the original research.

Be Aware

Z score does not apply to financial companies.

Related Terms

Total Assets, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities, Retained Earnings, Pretax Income, Interest Expense, Revenue, Market Capitalization, Total Liabilities, Financial Strength

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

X1 0.27620.37080.22650.21770.19060.27780.15730.16360.12340.1002
X2 1.08150.8250.69080.67190.70540.79670.83490.88780.89860.1353
X3 0.2920.15420.02190.0510.08660.10990.12330.13510.11650.1065
X4 3.39530.69160.83781.13031.23531.66952.38132.10991.03091.2939
X5 1.01240.76070.52230.51530.54910.60850.62730.65370.60120.6063
Z-score 5.863.282.342.562.793.423.823.803.012.04
Zones Safe ZonesSafe ZonesGrey ZonesGrey ZonesGrey ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesGrey Zones

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

X1 0.16360.21520.20610.1820.12340.18190.17840.15160.10020.1635
X2 0.88780.84540.84360.83660.89860.87390.9050.92210.13530
X3 0.13510.12550.11380.11130.11650.10890.10530.10290.10650.093
X4 2.10991.75271.55851.28891.03091.09820.97261.1311.29391.2925
X5 0.65370.60260.56870.56050.60120.58010.59030.5940.60630.4763
Z-score 3.803.513.313.
Zones Safe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesGrey ZonesDistress” Zones
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)