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Noble Group (Noble Group) Altman Z-Score

: -0.87 (As of Today)
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The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.

Noble Group has a Altman Z-Score of -0.87, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Noble Group's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:


Noble Group Altman Z-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Noble Group's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Array ( [0] => - [1] => - [2] => - [3] => - [4] => - [5] => 4.97 [6] => 4.88 [7] => 4.02 [8] => 2.91 [9] => -2.31 )
Noble Group Annual Data
Trend Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17
Altman Z-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.97 4.88 4.02 2.91 -2.31

Noble Group Quarterly Data
Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.04 -2.31 -2.39 -1.16 -0.86

Competitive Comparison

For the Conglomerates subindustry, Noble Group's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Noble Group Altman Z-Score Distribution

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Noble Group's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Noble Group's Altman Z-Score falls into.



Noble Group Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Noble Group's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*-0.6682+1.4*0+3.3*-0.4435+0.6*0+1.0*1.3941
=-0.87

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Sep. 2018:
Total Assets was $3,549 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,320 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $4,691 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $0 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was -34.663 + -119.822 + -63.849 + -1613.882 = $-1,832 Mil.
Interest Expense was -63.551 + -73.996 + -65.145 + -55.553 = $-258 Mil.
Revenue was 1209.987 + 1116.956 + 1214.872 + 1405.279 = $4,947 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was $0 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $4,691 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(2319.992 - 4691.299)/3548.702
=-0.6682

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=0/3548.702
=0

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-1832.216 - -258.245)/3548.702
=-0.4435

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=0.013/4691.299
=0

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=4947.094/3548.702
=1.3941

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Noble Group has a Altman Z-Score of -0.87 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Noble Group  (OTCPK:NOBGY) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Noble Group Altman Z-Score Related Terms

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Noble Group (Noble Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
38 Gloucester Road, 18th Floor, Mass Mutual Tower, China Evergrande Centre, Hong Kong, HKG
Noble Group Ltd operates and manages supply chain focused on purchasing physical commodities and transforming these into customized products. The business consist of logistics and transportation, price risk management and hedging, commodity processing and blending, as well as structured and trade finance products. The company has two segments - namely, the Energy Segment, with combines the former Energy and Gas & Power segments and includes the Oil Liquids, Gas & Power and Energy Coal businesses; and the Metals, Minerals and Ores Segment, which combines the former Metals & Mining and Corporate segments and includes the Metals, Carbon Steel Materials and Logistics businesses.

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