Switch to:
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc (NAS:ULTA)
Altman Z-Score
8.88 (As of Today)

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc has a Z-score of 8.88, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Z-Score is strong.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Z-Score is less than 1.81, it is in Distress” Zones.
When Z-Score is greater than 2.99, it is in Safe Zones.
When Z-Score is between 1.81 and 2.99, it is in Grey” Zones.

ULTA' s 10-Year Altman Z-Score Range
Min: 1.92   Max: 11.46
Current: 8.88

1.92
11.46

During the past 12 years, Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc's highest Altman Z-Score was 11.46. The lowest was 1.92. And the median was 6.21.


Definition

Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.4638+1.4*0.3015+3.3*0.2007+0.6*9.3187+1.0*1.6488
=8.88

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Apr. 2014:
Total Assets was $1,699 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,090 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $302 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $512 Mil.
Pretax Income was 81.081 + 114.207 + 72.894 + 72.886 = $341 Mil.
Interest Expense was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Revenue was 713.77 + 868.082 + 618.781 + 600.998 = $2,802 Mil.
Market Capitalization (Today) was $5,959 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $639 Mil.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(1090.49 - 302.419)/1699.225
=0.4638

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=512.331/1699.225
=0.3015

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pretax Income + Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(341.068 + 0)/1699.225
=0.2007

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Capitalization/Total Liabilities
=5959.024/639.469
=9.3187

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=2801.631/1699.225
=1.6488

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress” Zones - 1.81 < “Grey” Zones < 2.99 - “Safe” Zones

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc has a Z-score of 8.88 indicating it is in Safe Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm’s assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm’s assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm’s assets.

Read more about Altman Z-score and the original research.


Be Aware

Z score does not apply to financial companies.


Related Terms

Total Assets, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities, Retained Earnings, Pretax Income, Interest Expense, Revenue, Market Capitalization, Total Liabilities, Financial Strength


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14
X1 0.27060.26020.24930.28070.24640.330.43390.44560.4591
X2 -0.3227-0.2458-0.1473-0.0771-0.00810.09110.19510.23280.2885
X3 0.08320.09880.08020.06750.11510.16070.20370.21930.2045
X4 003.14911.06124.32336.799112.717112.90019.2139
X5 2.0492.23011.94321.90652.20861.99161.85551.7411.6663
Z-score 2.202.524.192.995.477.1210.9511.078.82
Zones Grey ZonesGrey ZonesSafe ZonesGrey ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe Zones

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc Quarterly Data

Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14
X1 0.43390.39290.43160.39780.44560.4360.44110.42580.45910.4638
X2 0.19510.15050.18690.18840.23280.22630.24880.25510.28850.3015
X3 0.20370.2020.22310.2020.21940.21790.21960.20660.20450.2007
X4 12.717111.720213.448211.169712.822810.572412.105413.56799.18098.8194
X5 1.85551.7621.87851.65741.7411.7491.75881.66821.66631.6488
Z-score 10.9510.1411.469.7711.029.6510.6211.368.808.58
Zones Safe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe ZonesSafe Zones
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK
Email Hide