Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham

Last Update: 11-14-2017

Number of Stocks: 558
Number of New Stocks: 100

Total Value: $17,105 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 12%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

Jeremy Grantham past Portfolios

Jeremy Grantham 13F Filings

Portfolio DateNumber of StocksTotal Value (Mil)Number of New StocksQ/Q Turnover
2017-09-30675$17,10510012%
2017-06-30670$18,12410013%
2017-03-31672$17,7311778%
2016-12-31574$18,5525010%
2016-09-30634$21,1815911%
2016-06-30672$24,3728719%
2016-03-31667$26,75212216%
2015-12-31649$27,8088016%
2015-09-30613$28,77616719%
2015-06-30462$30,9842713%
2015-03-31471$33,4922811%
2014-12-31496$37,148598%
2014-09-30541$37,7525316%
2014-06-30606$36,8174610%
2014-03-31746$38,3328112%
2013-12-31741$41,2147910%
2013-09-30746$37,9321016%
2013-06-30705$38,410979%
2013-03-31688$37,5561058%
2012-12-31764$33,6441049%
2012-09-30735$34,5681377%
2012-06-30766$32,7111009%
2012-03-31812$33,241886%
2011-12-31860$31,85413310%
2011-09-30882$28,64210614%
2011-06-301033$29,185697%
2011-03-311141$30,1401328%
2010-12-311100$29,4162535%
2010-09-30968$27,9741427%
2010-06-30931$20,3251139%
2010-03-31928$29,447944%
2009-12-31938$30,13411711%
2009-09-30985$26,3931567%
2009-06-30829$24,03400%

Jeremy Grantham 13D/G Filings

Filing date :

Jeremy Grantham Watch

  • GMO's Jeremy Grantham: Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up (A Very Personal View)

    I find myself in an interesting position for an investor from the value school. I recognize on one hand that this is one of the highest-priced markets in US history. On the other hand, as a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognize that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market. The data on the high price of the market is clean and factual. We can be as certain as we ever get in stock market analysis that the current price is exceptionally high. In contrast, my judgment on the melt-up is based on a mish-mash of statistical and psychological factors based on previous eras, each one very different, so that much of the information available is not easily comparable. It also leans very heavily on a few US examples. Yet, strangely, I find the less statistical data more compelling in this bubble context than the simple fact of overpricing. Whether you will also, dear reader, remains to be seen. In any case, my task in this note is to present the evidence, both statistical and touchy-feely, as clearly as I can.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's 3rd Quarter Commentary - Career Risk and Stalin’s Pension Fund: Investing in a World of Overpriced Assets (With a Single Reasonably-Priced Asset)

    Inside GMO there are three different views on whether and how rapidly the market will revert to its pre-1998 normal: James Montier feels it will be business as usual and revert within 7 years. Ben Inker also holds out for a 7 year period, but includes a 33% chance it will revert to a higher average valuation (the “Hell” scenario). I believe that the reversion on valuations will take 20 years, and that profit margins will probably only revert two-thirds of the way back to the old normal.

      


  • GMO Commentary: China’s Rising Presence in Emerging Debt Markets

    Introduction

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Paper - The Good Thing About Climate Change: Opportunities

    Executive Summary

      


  • Where Oil Prices Are Headed

    Oil has been in my “too hard” bucket the last six months. I couldn’t identify any catalyst that could drive it out of its trading range. I mostly expected it to chop around which has turned out to be the case.


    But it’s time I revisit oil and see if there’s anything on the horizon that could ignite a tradable trend in the near future. With many U.S. E&Ps selling for what appears on the surface to be cheap, along with the oil and gas servicing industry trading at historically low relative values to the oil price; now seems like a good time to dig in.

      


  • James Montier White Paper From GMO - 'The S&P 500: Just Say No'

    Pension Trustee Smith: I recommend to the committee that we liquidate our International equity assets and index our equity exposure to the S&P 500. US stocks have outperformed for the last 20 years, and I see no reason why that should not continue. Everyone knows that the US is the strongest economy and market in the world.


    This is a somewhat fictionalized version of a comment or conversation that has gone on in many committee discussions over the last several years in one form or another. And why wouldn’t it? Being a US equity investor over the past several years has felt glorious. The S&P 500 has trounced the competition provided by other major developed and emerging equity markets. Over the last 7 years, the S&P is up 173% (15% annualized in nominal terms) versus MSCI EAFE (in USD terms), which is up 71% (8% annualized), and poor MSCI Emerging, which is up only 30% (4% annualized). Every dollar invested in the S&P has compounded into $2.72 versus MSCI EAFE’s $1.70 and MSCI Emerging’s $1.30. Diversification theoretically sounds good, but as Yogi Berra said, “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is.” Diversification in this particular instance seems good in theory but not so much in practice.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's GMO Quarterly Letter: Why Are Stock Market Prices So High?



  • Jeremy Grantham: I Do Indeed Believe the US Market Will Revert Toward Its Old Means – Just Very Slowly

    After a few misquotes and misunderstandings by journalists, overeager perhaps for a punchy headline and unwilling to invest time in my two long and quite possibly boring pieces on “Not With a Bang But a Whimper,” I need to reply.

      


  • Bubbles, Busts and a Mean Reversion Strategy


    “Although value is a weak force in any single year, it becomes a monster over several years. Like gravity, it slowly wears down the opposition.” -Jeremy Grantham

      


  • The Future of Value Investing


    “The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s different.'"  Sir John Templeton

      


  • Jeremy Grantham 1st Quarter: This Time Seems Very, Very Different (Part 2 of Not with a Bang but a Whimper - A Thought Experiment)

    Oh, the good old days!

      


  • GMO - The 100 Year: A Take on the Century Bond

    Global bond markets were roiled at the end of 2016 with higher rates and a re-steepening of the yield curve. The interest rate sell-off occurred during a change in global inflation expectations as discussions regarding deficit financing, infrastructure spending, and fiscal stimulus took center stage at a time when labor markets were generally considered tight given current low unemployment levels.

      


  • GMO White Paper: Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast

    One of the great joys of working at GMO is the freedom to disagree. Indeed, many moons ago when Ben Inker first approached me about joining GMO, he told me that, having read my work, he believed we were very much philosophically aligned. Ben noted, however, that occasionally I would reach a remarkably different conclusion than he, and that was interesting because we obviously approached problems using a very similar framework.

      


  • GMO: The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism

    In a companion paper, “Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” we present evidence that asset markets are generally priced for “secular stagnation,” and argue that this requires a number of extreme assumptions on the part of investors. However, we didn’t really explore the root causes and consequences of secular stagnation in that paper. We remedy that with this paper, which is a deep dive into the murky world of secular stagnation, its sources, and its impact.

      


  • GMO Emerging Thoughts: Emerging Markets Can Trump US Policy Rhetoric

    Key points

      


  • GMO Insights - Emerging Markets: Value Trumps Headlines

    Let’s imagine Plutus, the Greek god of wealth, was feeling so benevolent at the beginning of 2016 that he let all emerging market investors in the land know the following events would occur with certainty in the coming year: 1) growth concerns and threats of currency devaluation in China would shake the emerging and developed markets alike; 2) drastic declines in oil and commodities prices would follow; 3) a faction of the Turkish Armed Forces would attempt a coup d’état in Turkey; 4) Brazil would suffer a shattering political scandal (leading to President Rousseff’s impeachment), and a debilitating outbreak of Zika; 5) Donald J. Trump, after campaigning on a highly protectionist platform, would be elected president of the United States; and, finally, 6) similar to what happened in Brazil, the Korean president would be impeached. Most investors, after falling to their knees in thanks for this prescience, would have moved quickly to take all their capital out of emerging market investments and then waited for the ensuing carnage. Would that have been the right call? Absolutely not. While emerging equities (and debt, for that matter) displayed volatility during the year, due in large part to those headlines coming true, they delivered solid returns of 11.2%, considerably outperforming global equities (Exhibit 1). Emerging market value stocks did even better, generating gains of nearly 15% in 2016. As is often the case, especially with emerging markets, an asset priced for horrific news can do just fine, even when faced with bad news. Oh, by the way, Brazil was the best performing stock market in the world in 2016. Arjun Divecha, the Chairman of the GMO Board of Directors and head of our Emerging Markets Equity team, is fond of saying that in the emerging markets, “You make more money when things go from truly awful to merely bad, than when they go from good to great.”


    The blue line in Exhibit 2 indicates that things are not all good or even great in the emerging markets. Return on equity (ROE) for the asset class has been declining for years relative to the developed world. After years of superlative performance during the height of the commodities super cycle, ROEs for the emerging world offer 13% less than their developed counterparts.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Buys Penn Virginia

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), chairman of the board at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, established a position in Penn Virginia Corp. (NASDAQ:PVAC) on Dec. 31, 2016.


    Grantham, Richard Mayo and Eyk Van Otterloo founded GMO in 1977 in Boston. The firm depends on in-depth fundamental analysis and innovative quantitative methods to identify long-term investment opportunities that will achieve the best risk-adjusted returns.

      


  • Hellish Choices: What’s an Asset Owner to Do? - Ben Inker Letter

    Executive Summary

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's 3rd Quarter Commentary: Not With a Bang but a Whimper (and other stuff)

    Preamble


    Rather like a parrot I have been repeating for 10 quarters now my belief that we would not have a traditional bubble burst in the US equity market until we had reached at least 2300 on the S&P, the threshold level of major bubbles in the past, and at least until we had reached the election. Well, we are close on both counts now. My passionate hope was that I would then, perhaps 6 months after the election, recommend a major sidestep of the coming deluge that would conveniently have arrived 6 to 12 months later, allowing us then, after a 50% decline, to leap back into cheap equity markets enthusiastically, more enthusiastically, that is, than we did last time in 2009. Thus we would save many of our clients tons of money as we had (eventually) in the 2000 bust, at least for those clients who stayed with us for the ride, and in 2007. I consider myself a bubble historian and one who is eager to see one form and break: I have often said that they are the only really important events in investing.

      


  • Slow & Steady for Check Point Software

    Growth at Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHPK) has slowed. But this resident of the Undervalued Predictable and Buffett-Munger screeners at GuruFocus has potential for investors who want a tech company that can consistently deliver increasing earnings.


    With current concerns about internet security and hacking, it’s probably a good time to look at companies that help us protect our computers, servers and infrastructure. Check Point has been doing that for more than twenty years.

      


  • Recreational Vehicle Companies Have Soaring Returns

    Among the industries for U.S. companies, the auto industry contains several companies that have high returns on equity and high returns on assets. Two recreational vehicle companies, Polaris Industries Inc. (NYSE:PII) and Thor Industries Inc. (NYSE:THO), had historically increasing returns, suggesting that the recreational vehicle industry offers good value opportunities for investors.


    Five different return ratios

      


  • The Reserve: The Dollar, the Renminbi, and Status of Reserve - GMO White Paper

    Part I - The Dollar Ascendant


    When I was in elementary school, my family made regular trips to my parents’ birthplace of India. The journey would normally take us from our home in Iowa, to London, to Bombay (now Mumbai), and finally to Hyderabad. Upon arrival, we children would clamor for the local currency, rupees. These rupees were the key to making the summer trip tolerable: rupees purchased quantities of lassi, ice cream, and Indian fruit sodas. During our layover in Bombay, my father allowed us the luxury of room service. After the server made the delivery, he waited for the customary gratuity, and I realized that I had not a rupee on me. I reached into my pocket, but only found a crumpled dollar. I gave it to him with trepidation, but was relieved when he gladly accepted it. At the time, it struck me as odd that the US dollar, a foreign currency, would be accepted by a server thousands of miles away from the US. Now, many years later, that incident serves to remind me of the power and convenience of a reserve currency.

      


  • 3 More Reasons Grantham Favors Commodity Stocks

    Earlier, we highlighted three reasons to own commodity stocks, not commodities themselves. The thesis stemmed from research done by Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) and Lucas White of GMO LLC, an asset manager with more than $120 billion in assets.


    It is worth your time to listen to Grantham. He's credited with calling the 2008-2009 housing collapse and the following credit crisis. Previously, he started one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s, avoided investing in Japanese equities and real estate in the 1980s and recommended not investing in technology stocks during the Internet bubble in the 1990s.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Says Own Commodity Stocks, Not Commodities

    In recent years, it has become vogue to invest directly in commodities, especially with the advent of ETFs allowing quick, cheap and easy exposure. Given the performance gap between, say, gold miners and the price of gold, many investors have been satisfied with their decision.


    But, in a recent white paper, Lucas White and Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) present a compelling case for investing in resource equities rather than the commodities themselves. Here is what they found.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham - An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case for Natural Resource Equities

    Executive Summary




  • Jeremy Grantham Trims Amazon, Baidu, Wal-Mart

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) is the Chairman of the Board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, a Boston based asset management firm. The following are his largest trades of the second quarter.


    The guru almost closed his stake in Amazon Inc. (AMZN), reducing it by 97.56% with an impact of -2.76% on the portfolio.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's GMO 2nd-Quarter Commentary: Immigration and Brexit

    Preface


    I set myself a task this quarter to give my views on why suddenly so many strange things are going on in the US and in the UK and what they might mean. We in the US can see the turmoil resulting from the Brexit vote, which seems to have been undertaken almost casually, without the normal planning for consequences. It has been likened to a dog that to its amazement catches the car – now what? The consequences for the remarkable experiment of the European Union are unknowable but potentially profound.

      


  • Ben Inker's GMO 2nd Quarter Letter: The Duration Connection

    Executive Summary


    Over the last six or seven years, most financial assets have done very well. The performance divide has not been between low-risk assets and high-risk assets or between liquid assets and illiquid assets, but between long-duration assets and short-duration assets. Long-duration assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity have benefitted from a large fall in the discount rate associated with their cash flows, while short-duration assets have been hurt by the same fall. Investors tend to tilt their portfolios in favor of those assets that have done well, and today that pushes them to be increasing effective duration in their portfolios, just when the potential returns to those assets have dropped. What we believe would be most helpful to investors are short-duration risk assets, as they offer the potential of decent returns over time with less vulnerability to rising discount rates. These assets, generally lumped together under the “alternatives” title, are generally out of favor today given their disappointing performance since the financial crisis, but the characteristics that made them disappoint may well prove a blessing if discount rates start to rise.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Buys 2.5 Million Shares of JetBlue Airlines

    Guru Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) increased his stake in JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:JBLU) by 2,587,600 shares during the first quarter at an average price of $21.15. The purchase had a 0.21% impact on Grantham’s current portfolio.


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  • DCF Calculator: Grantham's Top 6 1st-Quarter Reductions Bring Better Than Fair Value

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) of GMO LLC reduced more than 200 stakes in the first quarter. His top six reductions brought prices that exceeded their present value, according to the DCF Calculator.


    In the guru’s most significant trade of the quarter, Grantham trimmed his stake in Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR), a telecommunications and mass media company based in Stamford, Connecticut, by more than 60%. The guru sold 2,844,796 shares for an average price of $198.44 per share. The deal had a -2.07% impact on Grantham’s portfolio.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Adds to Stake in VimpelCom

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) added 1,822,800 shares to his stake in VimpelCom Ltd. (VIP).


    1633571193.png

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's Q1 GMO Letter: 'Part I: Always Cry Over Spilt Milk'

    Introduction

      


  • GMO's James Montier - The Stock Market as Monetary Policy Junkie: Quantifying the Fed’s Impact on the S&P 500

    White paper by GMO's James Montier and Philip Pilkington


    Executive Summary

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Sells Stake in Alibaba

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), chairman of the board of Boston-based Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, bought 80 new stakes in the fourth quarter, but his largest deals involved divestitures or reductions.


    Grantham’s most noteworthy fourth-quarter transaction was the divestiture of his 15,051,767-share stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA), a Chinese ecommerce company, for an average price of $78.9 per share. The deal had a -3.08% impact on Grantham’s portfolio.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Part II: 2015 and 2016, U.S. Equity Bubble Update, and Yet More on Oil

    Summary




  • Jeremy Grantham GMO Letter - Part I: The Real American Exceptionalism

    Introduction


    If you listen to most red-blooded Republican candidates for President, you will often hear lists of U.S. virtues that are claimed to be superior to all others. There is never any attempt to prove the assertions – they are articles of faith. And, as we saw in last quarter's letter, the claims are mostly inaccurate and by a wide margin. Indeed, in this one respect Mr. Trump is far more accurate when he suggests that the U.S. has fallen off the pace in recent decades and has done much better in the past and could perhaps do much better again.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's GMO Invests in Energy Company, Bank

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) is the chairman and co-founder of the investment firm Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC. The company runs one of the largest investment funds in the world with more than $104 billion in firm-wide assets under management. In the third quarter of 2015, Grantham purchased 1,553,174 shares of Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) and 1,560,700 shares of Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY).


    The graph below shows the price movement of Valero Energy Corp.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham: 'Give Me Only Good News!' GMO 3rd Quarter Letter

    It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.


    (Attributed to Mark Twain)

      


  • Watch Those Insider Buys at Barnes & Noble

    Money talks. Actions speak louder than words. Therefore, actions involving money speak especially loudly.


    That’s why it pays to keep an eye on what top corporate executives do with their own money. If they invest in their own company’s shares, rather than buying (another) vacation home, that can be a meaningful bullish sign.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's Holdings Trading Below Peter Lynch Earnings Line

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) is the chairman of the board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, a Boston-based asset management firm whose portfolio is composed of 570 stocks, and the following are a few of his holdings that are trading with a very wide margin of safety, according to the Peter Lynch earnings line.


    Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW) is trading at about $15 per share while the Peter Lynch earnings line gives the stock a fair price of $95.3, giving it a margin of safety of 83%.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's GMO 3rd Quarter Performance

    GMO’s quarterly performance update for the third quarter ended Sept. 30.


    GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation Strategy

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Adds to Stakes in Pharmaceutical Stocks

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) has built a reputation over the years by identifying speculative “bubbles” as they were happening and guiding clients away from them. His third-quarter transactions suggest that the reverse may be happening in pharmaceuticals.


    Grantham’s most significant transaction in the third quarter was the addition of 6,467,840 shares to his stake in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (NYSE:VRX), a Canadian pharmaceutical company, for an average price of $233.19 per share. The transaction had a 4.01% impact on Grantham’s portfolio.

      


  • GMO Second Quarter Shareholder Letter - Part 3

    GMO Second Quarter Letter - Part 3


    All in all I am still very confident, unfortunately, that the old regime of irregularly falling commodity prices is gone forever.

      


  • GMO Second Quarter Shareholder Letter - Part 2

    Risk parity


    Another group of price-insensitive investors are managers of risk parity portfolios. These portfolios make allocations to asset classes not with regard to pricing of assets, but rather their volatility and correlation characteristics. Their price-insensitivity comes out in a couple of ways. First, as money flows into the strategies, they are levered buyers of bonds and inflation-linked bonds in particular. Like most strategies, if the money flows out, they are forced sellers of a slice of their portfolio. Second, unlike many other investors, they will also tend to buy and sell based on changes in volatility. As the volatility of an asset falls, these strategies will tend to lever it up further, and as the volatility rises they will sell. Given that low volatility tends to be associated with rising markets and high volatility with falling markets, this gives their buy and sell decisions a certain momentum flavor. If bond prices are moving up in a steady fashion, they will tend to buy more and more as volatility falls, and in a disorderly sell-off that sees yields and expected returns rise along with rising volatility, they will sell the assets due to their higher “risk.” In fact, rising volatility in bond markets could cause a general delevering of risk parity portfolios, causing them to sell assets unrelated to bonds in order to keep their estimated volatility stable. With hundreds of billions of dollars under management in risk parity strategies and large holdings in some of the less deeply liquid areas of the financial markets such as inflation-linked bonds and commodity futures, it is easy to imagine their selling in unsettling markets under certain circumstances, such as a repeat of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum.”

      


  • GMO Second Quarter Letter to Partners Part 1

    Jermeny Grantham's GMO has released its second quarter letter to its partners. The letter is broken up into two parts, one written by Grantham titled, "Ten Quick Topics To Ruin Your Summer," and the other, "Price-Insensitive Sellers," by Ben Inker.


    GMO's second quarter letter

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Reduces More Than 250 Stakes in Second Quarter

    Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), chairman of the board of Boston-based asset management firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, is known for his ability to identify speculative market “bubbles” and using that knowledge to lead clients away from financial disasters.


    Like most of the gurus we follow, Grantham bought some stakes, sold some stakes and added to some others in the second quarter. But, by far, most of his activity involved reducing existing stakes – more than 250 of them.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham Q2 2015 Letter – Ten Quick Topics To Ruin Your Summer



  • What Do High-Yield Maturities Tell Us About Timing the Credit Cycle? Another Take on the Wall

    Everybody involved in the credit markets wants to know when the cycle will turn. On the one hand, it feels like we are in the later stages of the current cycle and investors are afraid to overstay their welcome. On the other hand, credit spreads are close to historical averages while many competing asset classes seem overvalued. For those who are currently invested in high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, accurately timing the cycle will be the difference between safely clipping coupons and realizing painful losses. And for those of us who specialize in distressed debt investing, the turn of the cycle should create the next great opportunity. Most investors base their high-yield outlook on expected defaults.


    Credit strategists and portfolio managers frequently point to the timing of debt maturities – the so-called “maturity wall” – as a major determinant of near-term default rates. Presumably, with fewer debt maturities, there will be fewer defaults, and therefore higher returns. This assumption makes intuitive sense. After all, the inability to pay debts as they come due is a classic definition of insolvency. The more time companies have until their debts mature, the greater the chances they can find a way to refinance. Today, many credit strategists point to the relative lack of near-term high-yield maturities as a reason for investors to be constructive on credit.

      


  • Why Jeremy Grantham Believes We’re Not In a Bubble...Yet

    With the Shiller P/E ratio nearing all-time highs, many famous investors have expressed concerns that we are in a new stock market bubble.


    For those who need a primer, Robert Shiller of Yale University invented the Shiller P/E to measure the market's valuation. His valuation metric is believed to be a more reasonable market valuation indicator than the P/E ratio because it eliminates fluctuation of the ratio caused by the variation of profit margins during business cycles.

      


  • Jeremy Grantham's 10 Current Obsessions

    GMO chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) took a moment to tick off the top 10 issues on his mind today.


    "In my current role, I'm totally free to obsess about important issues that interest me," he said. And here they are, fleshed out a bit with some quotes from Grantham's commentaries:

      


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