John Rogers

Last Update: 01-10-2018

Number of Stocks: 176
Number of New Stocks: 5

Total Value: $8,614 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 5%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Rogers past Portfolios

John Rogers 13F Filings

Portfolio DateNumber of StocksTotal Value (Mil)Number of New StocksQ/Q Turnover

John Rogers 13D/G Filings

Filing date : 2017-12-31, 2017-10-31,

John Rogers Watch

  • John Rogers' Ariel Investments Monthly Commentary for December

    The mere suggestion that a flower could bring down a whole economy seems absurd to a reasonable mind, however that is exactly what happened during the famous tulip bulb market bubble that occurred in Holland during the 1600s. Increasing demand for rare varieties caused the price of bulbs to surge, with many people bartering their homes and land for the ‘wise investment’ with the simple expectation that the exuberant market behavior would continue and the bulbs could be resold at a greater price. As happens in all speculative frenzies, prices got so high that when people began to take profits, panic selling began. In no time, bulbs soon were trading for “no more than the price of a common onion.”1


  • John Rogers' Ariel Investments November Commentary

    Since Ariel’s founding in 1983, much has changed in the investment world, but our clear mission has consistently defined who we are and what we do. We began as a small- and mid-cap value manager and evolved strategically to offer three approaches—Value, Deep Value and Global—all of which adhere to our patient investment philosophy and strive to uncover mispriced companies whose true value will be realized over time.

    Renewed expectations of corporate tax cuts pushed U.S. markets to record levels in November. Financial stocks outperformed all other sectors as banks are likely to be the biggest beneficiary of the proposed corporate tax reform. Smaller-capitalization banks rallied, pushing small-cap indexes, with their greater-than-20% financial allocations, higher.


  • John Rogers Ariel Investments October Commentary

    Markets once again achieved historic highs in October, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring above 23,000. As shown in the chart above, all of the major indices –around the world and across capitalization spectrums – delivered small gains for the month. Globally, economic indicators continue to be largely positive with growth expectations supporting the positive sentiment in the markets today. Across sectors, commodities were the most newsworthy during the month. Expectations of OPEC production cuts extending beyond March 2018 drove oil prices higher. Brent Crude Oil topped $60 per barrel for the first time in more than two years.


  • John Rogers Comments on J.M. Smucker Co.

    Another key detractor from performance was J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE:SJM), a leading manufacturer of consumer food products. SJM fell -10.76% following a disappointing earnings report. The earnings miss was driven by weak volumes within the company’s coffee and consumer foods segments. Management attributed this to misalignment of branded to private-label price gaps, which was exacerbated by input costs and pricing imbalances. Management was also quick to note the company has since fixed the issue by sharpening every day and promoting price points— as a result, they have witnessed an uptick in volumes. While the earnings miss is disappointing, we were encouraged by management’s ability to quickly address the issue.

    SJM embodies many of the traits we look for in a company. It has compiled a portfolio of iconic, market-leading brands that produce consistent returns. The company is led by a disciplined management team that takes a long- term approach to running the business. Additionally, the company’s strong cash generation capabilities allow it to deploy cash between business growth initiatives and shareholder return programs.


  • John Rogers Comments on Mattel

    On the flip side, we had a few holdings that underperformed. Toy manufacturer, Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) declined -27.44% during the period. Early in the quarter, the company reported disappointing earnings results. While company revenues were in-line with expectations, gross margins were disappointing. Another headwind to the stock was the mid- September announcement that Toys”R”Us was filing for bankruptcy, which sent shockwaves through the toy market. In our opinion, Toys”R”Us’ bankruptcy will have little long-term impact on Mattel. Toys“R”Us represents approximately 11% of Mattel’s total sales. In the short-term, the impact should be reflected in fourth quarter sales for Mattel, but those numbers will probably result from softness across the board, not from Toys“R”Us specifically. Likewise, we have strong conviction that the company’s global reach and proven consistency makes it the licensee of choice for brand owners seeking a toy-manufacturing partner.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Appreciation Fund third-quarter 2017 shareholder commentary.   

  • John Rogers Comments on First American Financial Corp

    Another stand- out performer in the portfolio was First American Financial Corp. (NYSE:FAF), an industry leader in the title insurance and settlement services industry. It gained +12.72% during the quarter. Like BorgWarner, FAF reported better-than-expected earnings for the quarter, as well as continued strength in its residential purchase and commercial business lines. During the period, the company experienced a strong pick-up in purchase volume, which was a positive surprise for investors. With nearly 30% market share and few competitors, First American Financial has distinct scale and relationship advantages in an industry that is becoming increasingly centralized and automated. A historically -depressed real estate environment provided an opportunity to own the stock at levels that reflect current housing demand, rather than at levels that, given a more normalized mortgage origination environment, would reflect the company’s lean cost structure and its resultant earnings power.

    From John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)' Ariel Appreciation Fund third-quarter 2017 shareholder commentary.   

  • John Rogers' 3rd Quarter Ariel Appreciation Fund Commentary

    Quarter Ended September 30, 2017


  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund 3rd Quarter Commentary

    Quarter Ended September 30, 2017


  • John Rogers' Ariel Funds Monthly Commentary for September

    Domestically, Ariel hunts for value primarily amongst the small- and mid-cap universes. We also scour the globe for companies of all sizes for our international and global portfolios.

    After a sluggish August, equities bounced back in September with small - and mid-cap U.S. stocks faring best during the month. The surprise announcement of a deal between the President and Democrats helped Congress avoid yet another contentious debate over the debt ceiling and the potential impact of a government shutdown. The markets reacted positively to the news, renewing expectations for fiscal stimulus before year end. Tax reform took center stage as the White House hinted that a more detailed framework for reform would be released before the end of the month. The news revived the so-called “Trump Trade” we experienced earlier in the year, which drove U.S. banks, industrial companies and small-cap stocks higher. Also boosting equities was the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would begin reducing its security holdings and normalizing its balance sheet in October, as well as its plan to continue to raise rates at its December meeting.


  • John Rogers' Ariel Fund Monthly Commentary for August

    August was a weak month across the equity spectrum, but was especially weak for U.S. equities. As second-quarter earnings season came to a close, investors seemed to take earnings strength for granted. During the month, a new trend started to pop up: investors began punishing companies more for a negative surprise than rewarding those who reported a positive surprise. Indeed, investors turned their attention towards third-quarter guidance, all but ignoring second-quarter surprises. While this alone does not explain all of the poor performance experienced in August, it certainly seems to explain the pull-back that began earlier in the month. The outlook on the global geopolitical front has also proven to be of concern to investors—as tensions between the United States and North Korea grow, so does the threat of a potential nuclear strike.


  • John Rogers' Ariel Investments July Commentary

    Domestically, Ariel hunts for value primarily amongst the small- and mid-cap universes. We also scour the globe for international companies of all sizes for our international and global portfolios. The aforementioned benchmarks track the performance of these asset classes.

    All the major equity indexes have generated strong double digit returns. In the large- and mid-cap universes, growth has continued to outperform value, while the opposite has been true within small-cap and international equities.


  • John Rogers Comments on U.S. Silica Holdings

    We purchased one new position in Ariel Appreciation Fund in the second quarter of the year, and eliminated two others. We added U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SLCA), a niche supplier of sand to the oil and gas market, primarily servicing the process of hydraulic fracturing. The company is the second-largest producer of silica in the United States and boasts a differentiated logistics and transportation network that makes it a key and preferred supplier among its customer base. In our view, the market underappreciates the strength of the company’s competitive position, the likely pace of its revenue and earnings as demand for sand continues to meaningfully increase, and the attractive cash flow characteristics of its business.

  • John Rogers Comments on Northern Trust Corp

    Another strong contributor to performance was Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ:NTRS), up +12.77% in the second quarter. The stock price was buoyed by improving net interest margins and a favorable rate environment. In the first quarter of this year, the firm’s total assets under management hit the $1 trillion mark for the first time, largely due to a +13% increase over the last 12 months in its wealth management segment as well as an +11% increase in its larger corporate and institutional services arm. The bank should continue to feel a tailwind from a more constructive rate environment going forward. It operates in a favorable industry with a diversified product offering and high barriers to entry. Moreover, throughout the tumultuous last economic downturn and current recovery, Northern has proven the quality of its franchise and the value of its conservative operating approach. We continue to find the stock attractive at these levels.

  • John Rogers Comments on First American Financial Corp

    During the quarter, stocks in the portfolio performed quite well. Title insurer, First American Financial Corp. (NYSE:FAF) gained +14.67% after beating EPS consensus estimates by $0.10. Better-than-expected commercial revenues and a material lowering of the loss provision rate helped the company grow revenue by 10% versus the same period one year ago. The firm has faced several headwinds due to the sluggish U.S. housing market, but there are notable signs of improvement for spring selling season which should benefit FAF. We remain confident the stock still has upside as the U.S. housing market resumes its gradual recovery.


  • John Rogers' Ariel Appreciation Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary

    Quarter Ended June 30, 2017


  • John Rogers Comments on Nielsen Holdings Plc

    Nielsen Holdings Plc (NYSE:NLSN), the global provider of critical data and analytics about what consumers watch and buy, was the lone addition to Ariel Fund during the quarter. The company’s television ratings are the de facto currency for media and advertising decisions totaling hundreds of billions of dollars globally. Its consumer purchase data is unmatched in scope and scale, and therefore mission-critical information for the world’s leading consumer packaged goods players. As both television viewership and purchasing behavior become more fragmented across online and mobile devices, investors are concerned that Nielsen’s dominance is at risk. But, in our view, this fragmentation only makes Nielsen’s data more valuable. As such, we see the current fears as an opportunity to own a market share leading information services brand with highly recurring and growing free cash flows. We did not eliminate any positions during the quarter.

    As we look ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic about the economy. During our recent earnings calls, we noticed a shift from cost- cutting to top-line earnings growth, as well as increased optimism from company CEOs on the future of the economy, particularly within small companies. That said, we believe current valuations are difficult to overlook. As of June month-end, the S&P 500 Index traded at 18.5X forward earnings and the Russell 2000 Index traded at 19.3X forward earnings. While these figures are definitely above average, we do not yet consider them to be in dangerous territory. We remain disciplined with our approach and are confident in our portfolio positioning, which is at a deep discount relative to the indexes. Historical patterns have suggested this is a positive leading indicator for strong performance going forward.


  • John Rogers Comments on Viacom Inc.

    Also detracting from performance was multinational media conglomerate Viacom, Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAB), which saw its shares fall -27.59% during the period. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.79 vs. consensus of $0.59, with revenues up +8% year-over-year. Despite the positive news, investors remain wary of the company’s ability to execute its strategic plan, as changing media consumption patterns and technology create more general concerns about the cable business model. Nevertheless, Viacom is the owner of valuable content, including children’s programming and comedy, and a leading movie production franchise with more than 3,300 motion pictures in its library. Despite critics’ arguments that fundamentals will remain negative at those media network companies serving kids and teens and at those lacking live sports programming, we believe Viacom’s content will provide attractive economics regardless of the distribution medium.


  • John Rogers Comments on Bristow Group Inc.

    Some other holdings in the portfolio underperformed. Helicopter transport company supplier Bristow Group Inc. (NYSE:BRS) declined -49.19% as continued oil price weakness and disappointing earnings weighed heavily on the stock. The company’s management team lowered guidance around profitability and accelerated necessary cost cutting. Despite this short-term weakness, management reiterated that it expected to see stronger results in the second half of the fiscal year as recent contract wins come online. Management also reaffirmed the firm’s commitment to maintaining total liquidity over $200 million, highlighting the successful renegotiation of the company’s short-term debt obligations late last year. We expect to see continued short-term volatility in the company’s quarterly earnings reports. While we recognize the company faces several headwinds, we do not believe it is facing any significant risk of insolvency. Continued weakness in the energy market will be a headwind to the company short-term. However, we believe the value of the helicopters that Bristow owns creates a potential margin of safety1, as the company’s assets exceed its current stock price.


  • John Rogers Comments on JLL

    Another stand-out performer in the portfolio was JLL (NYSE:JLL), a premier real estate services firm. It gained +12.49% during the quarter. Strength was consistent across almost all of the company’s business segments with only capital markets and asset management experiencing weakness. As a worldwide leader in a critical niche, where global scale and expertise is crucial to customers, we expect the company will continue to benefit from accelerating trends of globalization, the outsourcing of real estate services, and institutional demand for commercial real estate.


  • John Rogers Comments on Zebra Technologies

    Some stocks in the portfolio performed quite well. Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:ZBRA)—a leading global supplier of solutions to help companies track physical assets and make smarter decisions—gained +10.16% during the period, driven predominantly by strong earnings. We believe the company's brand strength, distribution network and resources devoted to innovation enable it to gain market share, earn industry-leading profitability, and penetrate new growth markets. We view the company as an industry leader with a strong management team, well -positioned to benefit from secular global demand for asset tracking solutions, especially in developing economies.


Top Ranked Articles

Add Notes, Comments

If you want to ask a question or report a bug, please create a support ticket.

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)

GF Chat