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It’s Not Just Dinah in the Kitchen Anymore at Williams-Sonoma!
Posted by: FAST Graphs (IP Logged)
Date: June 14, 2012 05:19PM

Dividend Challenger: Williams-Sonoma Inc.

Founded in 1956, Williams-Sonoma (WSM) is not just a quality kitchen store, but a specialty leading home furnishing retail store. Williams-Sonoma has historically grown earnings at a compounded rate of 12.9% since 1998, resulting in a 3.4 billion dollar market cap. Williams-Sonoma's earnings per share have risen from $0.51 per share in 1998, with a drop in 2008 to $0.22 per share, to a current forecast earnings per share of approximately $2.49 for fiscal 2012. The current dividend yield is 2.6% and the dividend has increased each year for the past seven years.

This article looks at Williams-Sonoma Inc., a Dividend Challenger, through the lens of the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the reader will be provided the "essential fundamentals at a glance" expressed vividly in pictures. A Dividend Challenger is defined as a company that has increased its dividend every year for five to nine straight years. Williams-Sonoma Inc. is a Dividend Challenger that has raised its dividend every year for seven consecutive years. The complete Dividend Challengers list is compiled courtesy of David Fish. (Open as an excel spreadsheet and look at the tabs on the bottom to find the Dividend Challengers list.)

About Williams-Sonoma Inc: from their website

"Williams-Sonoma Inc. is a specialty retailer of high-quality products for the home. These products representing seven distinct merchandise strategies – Williams-Sonoma (cookware and wedding registry), Pottery Barn (furniture and bridal registry), Pottery Barn Kids (kid's furniture and baby registry), PBteen (girls' bedding and boys' bedding), West Elm (modern furniture and room decor), Williams-Sonoma Home (luxury furniture and decorative accessories) and Rejuvenation (lighting and hardware) – are marketed through 575 stores, seven direct mail catalogs and six e-commerce websites."

Williams-Sonoma Inc: A Dividend Challenger with Seven Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases

Learning from the Past – Looking at Earnings Only

Since dividends are paid out of earnings, a clear perspective of a company's historical earnings growth record is a vital component of a dividend investor's prudent due diligence process. The following graph plots Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s earnings per share since 1998. A quick glance to the right of the graph shows that Williams-Sonoma Inc. has increased earnings at a compounded rate of 12.9% (see purple circle on graph) per annum.

Earnings Determine Market Price and Dividend Income: The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings to both price movement and dividend income. The earnings growth rate line or True Worth ™ line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.

Since dividends are paid out of earnings, and therefore represent additional return on top of what the market capitalizes earnings at, they are depicted by the light blue shaded area and stacked on top of the earnings line. Therefore, a quick visual of these two important components is simultaneously revealed:

1. The additional return that dividend paying stocks provide.

2. The percentage of earnings paid to shareholders as dividends (payout ratio).

The value in this article is through carefully analyzing the earnings and price correlated fundamentally based graphs. Notice that one glance tells you how well the company has performed on an operating basis historically and how the market valued that historical performance. Therefore, the reader is free to discover whether or not current valuations make sense based on historical norms coupled with fundamental values. Instead of opinion, this article is designed to produce facts that can be analyzed to the reader's investing benefit.

Performance Table: Capital Appreciation and Dividend Income Williams-Sonoma Inc.

The associated performance results, with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the above discussion regarding the two components of total return: Capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 8.6% capital appreciation (Closing annualized ROR), long-term shareholders of Williams-Sonoma Inc would have received an additional $29,897.76 in dividends that increased their total return from 8.6% to 9.2% per annum.

(Note: Since this is a Dividend Challenger it has raised its dividend every year for at least five to nine years, therefore, negative dividend growth rates shown, if any, will be attributed to special additional dividends paid in excess of the company's regularly reported dividend rate.)

The following graph plots the historically normal P/E ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as low as it has been since 1998.

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company's current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Williams-Sonoma Inc is .92, which is historically low.

Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns, and the dividend and its growth rate are a function of two critical determinants:

1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company's earnings

2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Therefore, forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.

Therefore, it logically follows that measuring performance without simultaneously measuring valuation is a job half done. At its current price, which is attractively aligned with its True Worth™ valuation, Williams-Sonoma Inc. represents a potential opportunity to invest in a Dividend Challenger at a reasonable price. The important factor is that Williams-Sonoma Inc. has real assets and cash flow underpinning its stock price. This solid economic foundation offers shareholders the potential for both a strong margin of safety and an opportunity for an increasing dividend income stream and potentially attractive future returns.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 25 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s long-term earnings growth at 13.2%. Williams-Sonoma Inc. has 0% total long-term debt to total capital. Williams-Sonoma Inc. is currently trading at a P/E of 14.6, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s True Worth valuation would be $67.73 at the end of 2017, and if the stock traded at that valuation, it would represent a 14.8% annual rate of return from the current price, including assumed dividends.

Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price and dividend income in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Williams-Sonoma Inc. to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds illustrates that Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s expected earnings would be 8.1 times that of the 10-Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below.) This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

This report presents essential "fundamentals at a glance" on Dividend Challenger Williams-Sonoma Inc., illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it's imperative that the reader conduct his or her own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.

Summary & Conclusions

Historically, Williams-Sonoma's stock price has traded at a premium to its earnings justified intrinsic value until recently. The Fast Graphs™ tool shows Williams-Sonoma's stock price has currently come into a more normal range, with a more average earnings growth. A hypothetical: $100,000 invested in Williams-Sonoma on 12/31/1997 would compare extremely favorably with the same amount invested in the S&P 500. (See Performance History for Williams-Sonoma above.) As always, we recommend you conduct your own thorough due diligence.

Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment adviser as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.

Stocks Discussed: WSM,
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Re It s Not Just Dinah in the Kitchen Anymore at Williams-Sonoma
Posted by: Gaffey (IP Logged)
Date: June 14, 2012 09:07PM

Is this an analysis of Williams Sonoma or a pitch for FAST Graphs?

Stocks Discussed: WSM,
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Re It s Not Just Dinah in the Kitchen Anymore at Williams-Sonoma
Posted by: Invest E Gator (IP Logged)
Date: June 15, 2012 01:03AM

If it is a pitch, keep on pitching! Your article just a few months back featuring ROST gave a very informative analysis on the company, I took a position with them after doing the background investigative footwork. Although we shouldnt count chickens before they hatch... so far they are up what has been a very "rest-easy" 20%, and I am still excited for their long-term prospects. As for Williams Sonoma, Im somewhat familiar with the company but less certain about them. Their stores are nice but an uncomfortably high % of their business is from online sales and, as unique as their products might be, they arent unique enough if many of them can also be found on at a cheaper price. This strikes me as being a fairly serious long-term concern.

Stocks Discussed: WSM,
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