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  • yippoon commented on insider's article 50 min ago
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Chairman, CEO Alex Gorsky Sold $38.6 million of Shares
    Chairman, CEO of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Alex Gorsky sold 264,465 shares of JNJ on 11/16/2018 at an average price of $145.96 a share. The total sale...
    View all 1 comment
    yippoon 01-23 07:02
    • November 16th, 2018 - Alex Gorsky, JNJ CEO, Sells USD39.8 Million worth of J&J stock at USD145/share, a stock that he had always said was incredible value, as he was announcing buy backs.

      December 14th, 2018 - JNJ takes 10% hit in shares following a report published by renowned news agency Reuters that indicated that the US company was aware about asbestos tainting their talcum powder for decades.

      Either great judgement or simply great insight - saved himself USD4 Million on that sale, unlike the bath his stockholders took on the news.

      In 2001, Alex Gorsky was named President of Janssen in the US and in 2003, Company Group Chairman of Pharmaceuticals in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

      In speaking with a person with considerable knowledge of the matter, and remaining within a high profile position of the Johnson & Johnson organisation, it appears that Alex Gorsky did not leave JNJ voluntarily in 2004, but simply found out he had been fired after a poor presentation with, then Global Head of Pharmaceuticals and seated within the office of the CEO, under William Weldon.

      Of course, it was Alex Gorsky who managed the marketing of Risperdal while at JNJ using a strategy that downplayed the drug's side effects, encouraged "off-label" use, and provided kickback payments to Omnicare, a company which provided drug services to nursing homes. Ultimately, the fines for this conduct cost JNJ USD2.2B (a very hefty fine which allowed the organization to avoid a criminal charge and of course, like all corporates, managed to pay their way out of trouble without any admission of guilt). 

      Alex Gorsky also headed up Ethicon during the metal/metal hip replacement fiasco and was most certainly the lead decision maker in USD20 Billion folly, with the ill-fated, and poorly diligenced purchase of the Synthes acquisition which has weighed down Medical Devices for the best part of a decade and likely one of the worst acquisitions of all time.  It still weighs the company down today but Alex Gorsky remains steadfastly soldiering on, as he is trained to do.  Fail one battle, fail another - keep moving so no one will notice the mess that you have left behind for your lieutenants to clean up after you.

      Why should there be any reason that he shouldn't be made CEO.  More lawsuits have been filed under Gorsky that any other leader in the history of JNJ due to the lax processes that were followed by the Medical devices unit for many years with hip/knee implants (metal/metal, cobalt implants and vaginal mesh - where ever the company thought they could make a quick buck, they were there.

      It's good to know that the future of JNJ is in such hands.   All you need to do is watch "The Bleeding Edge" documentary to see the blank stare on Mr. Gorsky's face (where he stated that he knew nothing about any pain caused by mesh insertion) compared to his Medical Director that was completely truthful to understand what Mr. Gorsky stands for.  

      The sooner that JNJ moves past this period of poor corporate governance, then better for shareholders in the long term.  It took Gorsky 7 years to come out of the shadows to defend JNJ on the Talc issue which he left with any low level lacky that he could find until he found he had no more choices... his stock portfolio had dropped in value by USD40 Million overnight, so he had decided to take the lead but continued to "lead from behind" as he has done throughout his tenure - delivering half truths, making poor decisions wrapped in clever anecdotes written for him by his team of communications specialists... "everyone needs an Amazon"... that's my favorite.

      I can say with all certainty Mr. Gorsky, you certainly deserve your Amazon and I truly hope that clean the floor with JNJ and the remainder of the Credo you left to rot so many years ago in your clamber to the rarified of the corporate ladder.  20 - 30 years from now, there is little doubt that the decisions you made, the mistakes you "spit polished" over and the smooth overtures you provided to the CNBC anchors, you will, without doubt, surely be remembered as the single, worst CEO that JNJ has ever had.

       

       

       

       
  • tammymakhabu commented on PRNewswire's article 1 hr ago
    Catherines Plus Sizes Raises Over $132K In Support Of The American Diabetes Association
    PR Newswire COLUMBUS, Ohio, Jan. 22, 2019 COLUMBUS, Ohio, Jan. 22, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Catherines Plus Sizes is thrilled to announce...
    View all 1 comment
    tammymakhabu 01-23 06:29
    • Twelve months ago I constantly had to go to the bathroom. I thought it was because I gave up soft drinks and was only drinking water. One day I had a stomachache. I was in bed for 4 days. The doctor's appointment was for a Wednesday. I got sick and went to emergency room on a Monday. I was told my blood sugar level was 810 and I have diabetes. I was taking taking metformin 1000 mg twice daily.It Wasn't really helping  Last year, a family friend told me about Organic Herbal clinic and their successful Diabetes TREATMENT, I visited their website ww w . organicherbalclinic. co m and ordered their Diabetes Formula, i am happy to report the treatment effectively treated and reversed my Diabetes, most of the symptoms stopped, I'm able to  eat well, sleep well and exercise regularly., I'm pretty active now and my attitude is extremely positive.
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  • msrao2223 commented on Soid Ahmad's article 5 hr ago
    NetEase Returns to Growth in Online Games but the Price Remains Stretched
    NetEase (NTES), a China-based massive multiplayer online games service provider, reported its second quarter earnings yesterday, beating analysts’...
    View all 1 comment
    msrao2223 01-23 02:07
    • We have been looking to get brawl stars hack here and this website has helped us a lot here.
  • Stepan Lavrouk commented on Stepan Lavrouk's article 5 hr ago
    How to Value an Oil and Gas Company: Part 1
    The oil and gas sector is notoriously tricky to invest in given the technical nature of the field, the sometimes ambiguous terminology, the...
    View all 5 comments
    Stepan Lavrouk 01-23 01:54
    • Well given that Texas Pacific is clearly quite tightly correlated with oil price a reasonable starting point would be to assume that the cyclicality of oil translates to cyclicality in the stock price. Obviously there is more that goes into valuing TPL that that, but it seems like a good starting point, especially since TPL is not a producer of oil and gas per se, but receives royalties from the sale of oil and gas. Then one would try to estimate the value of its potentially very lucrative water business. 
  • msrao2223 commented on PRNewswire's article 6 hr ago
    Now You Can Share Your GoPro Moments Direct to Instagram Stories
    New Sharing Feature Lets You Move Content Straight to Instagram From Your GoPro App PR Newswire SAN MATEO, Calif., May 1, 2018 SAN MATEO,...
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    msrao2223 01-23 01:48
    • This is the best way to get tiktok followers online and it has been the best way.
  • msrao2223 commented on Julie Young's article 6 hr ago
    Windows 10 Off To A Strong Start For Microsoft
    On Wednesday, July 29 Microsoft (MSFT) began the release of its new Windows 10 operating system. The new operating system is now available as a free...
    View all 1 comment
    msrao2223 01-23 01:41
  • msrao2223 commented on Soid Ahmad's article 6 hr ago
    Instagram Stories Crosses 400 Million Active Users
    Instagram – the snap-oriented app of Facebook (FB), now boasts more than 400 million active users for Stories – a personal feed of photos and...
    View all 1 comment
    msrao2223 01-23 01:35

Yesterday

  • stephenbaker commented on Robert Abbott's article 14 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 12 comments
    stephenbaker 01-22 16:57
    • Hi Robert,

      Someone once said successful investing is simple but not easy.  For people who have no distinct interest in investing other than to make money, simplicity should make sense.  Using the CAPE ratio (or for that matter, another value-oriented metric) to guide you as to when to invest new money seems to make sense (at least to me).  Reduced to its essence, you trade the benefit of never overpaying for the opportunity cost (for new funds) of the yield on cash vs. what you would have received [or lost> by investing those funds in the market when stocks are more expensive than the mean.  Without any hard data, my belief is you would do quite well over time.  Of course, this could be back-tested.  Personally, I use a similar approach but as I do have an interest in individual equities rather than indices, I use a similar approach in allocating new funds toward new acquisitions.  The only difficulty is on the sell side (never on the buy side since many stocks tend to be cheap at the times I may buy only 1 or 2) and in hindsight, my "mistakes" have been in not selling stocks that have gotten too expensive. 
  • Mayank Marwah posts: 15 hr ago
    Johnson & Johnson Reports 4th-Quarter Financial Results
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) released its fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Jan. 22, topping expectations on the back of superb sales of its psoriasis treatment and cancer drug. Sales in the consumer goods businesses improved only a...
    Comment
  • Alberto Abaterusso commented on Alberto Abaterusso's article 15 hr ago
    Consider Comerica for 2019
    One way investors can increase their odds of finding a bargain is by screening for companies based on earnings yield.  A good benchmark to base this...
    View all 1 comment
    Alberto Abaterusso 01-22 15:53
    • Just a few minutes ago: cash quarterly dividend increased 12% to 67 cents at Comerica. 
  • Robert Abbott commented on Robert Abbott's article 16 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 11 comments
    Robert Abbott 01-22 15:36
    • Thank you very much for the original post Batbeer2, and thanks to Stevenbaker and Jtdaniel for your contributions. It's been a great discussion and and I enjoyed reading it!

      Going back to the original question, I had a couple of related questions. Like Batbeer, I have wondered if CAPE is a profit enhancer, and second, if it is an enhancer, then why don't I see more of it (for example, it does not appear on GuruFocus summary page for individual stocks, which I'm sure reflects lack of demand--I know Charlie and his team are quite responsive to subscriber requests).

      I have tentatively concluded, rightly or wrongly, that value investors deal with a number of metrics, and not just P/E or CAPE, and the more diligent among us would certainly look for 5 to 10 years of earnings history if it were available. In other words, is CAPE baked in to the assessments of those who use several fundamental metrics to make buy/no-buy decisions? I welcome your thoughts.

      Finally, my compliments to Jtdaniel for his plans to read the full book. Personally, I have found it quite helpful, because of the way Carlin explains the issues, and I look forward to going through it again in a few months when I can look at it again with a different perspective. And, of course, my articles are simply digests, not all-encompassing expositions. There is much I have to leave out because of space constraints.
  • John Dorfman posts: 16 hr ago
    Micron and Systemax Are on the Casualty List
    I’ve picked four of them for my Casualty List, a quarterly compilation of wounded stocks that I...
    Comment
  • Thomas Macpherson and kovid.diablo3 became friends 16 hr ago
  • Alberto Abaterusso posts: 16 hr ago
    Consider Comerica for 2019
    One way investors can increase their odds of finding a bargain is by screening for companies based on earnings yield.  A good benchmark to base this off os is the monthly spot rate on 20-Year High-Quality Market Corporate...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Matthews China Fund Comments on Brilliance China Automotive Holdings
    On the other hand, our holdings in the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors were among the major detractors to the Fund's absolute performance for the year. Brilliance China Automotive...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Matthews China Fund Comments on China Resources Land
    In 2018, real estate and energy sectors performed well. China Resources Land and China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) were two of the top contributors to the Fund's performance. China Resources Land...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Matthews China Fund 4th Quarter Commentary
    For the year ending December 31, 2018, the Matthews China Fund (Trades, Portfolio) returned -21.42% (Investor Class), while its benchmark, the MSCI China Index returned -18.75%. For the fourth quarter of the year, the Fund returned -12.51%...
    Comment
  • Alberto Abaterusso posts: 17 hr ago
    Lam Research Is a Buy
    Continuing tensions between the U.S. and China have proven to not be good for U.S. equities. The trade war between the two countries began last summer when President Donald Trump disclosed his plans to impose 10% tariffs on an estimated $200...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Bill Nygren and David Herro Comments on Apache
    ), a U.S.-based oil and gas exploration and production company, was the largest detractor for the quarter. Despite exceeding third-quarter production and EBITDA...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Bill Nygren and David Herro Comments on
    ), headquartered in the U.K. and the third-largest insurance broker in the world, was the top contributor for the quarter. The company delivered...
    Comment
  • Holly LaFon posts: 17 hr ago
    Bill Nygren and David Herro's 4th Quarter Oakmark Global Select Fund Letter
    The Oakmark Global Select Fund declined 18.1% for the quarter ended December 31, 2018, underperforming the MSCI World Index’s 13.4% decline. For the calendar year, the Fund declined 21.2%, underperforming the MSCI World Index’s decline of...
    Comment
  • Tiziano Frateschi posts: 18 hr ago
    6 Undervalued Companies Growing Earnings
    Companies that are growing their earnings are often good investments because they can return a solid profit to investors. <a...
    Comment
  • shadowstock commented on Holly LaFon's article 19 hr ago
    Podcast Transcript: International Small-Cap Investing With Craig Thrasher
    Listen to the podcast here. Holly: Hi, welcome to the GuruFocus Podcast. I'm Holly. I'm the editor of GuruFocus, and I'm here today with Craig...
    View all 1 comment
    shadowstock 01-22 12:12
    • If its possible going forward having a transcript of all podcasts would be a big win for gurufocus traffic and value to members now and in the future. Thanks. 
  • Sydnee Gatewood posts: 20 hr ago
    Johnson & Johnson Shares Fall on Disappointing 2019 Outlook
    Health care conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 <a...
    Comment
  • Omar Venerio posts: 20 hr ago
    Wall Street Opens Lower Tuesday
    U.S. stocks were in negative territory on Tuesday, after the market was closed yesterday because of Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 150 points to 24,557, the S&P 500 index lost 0.87% to 2,648, and...
    Comment
  • batbeer2 commented on Robert Abbott's article 20 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 10 comments
    batbeer2 01-22 10:59
    • >> Hopefully an average investor would at least be able to discern if a business is profitable and unlikely to land in bankruptcy court.

      Ah! I think we are talking about different things. Any analyst (amateur or otherwise) would be able to discern that. But there is more to investing than analysis. Take Tesla (or for that matter Amazon). For the sake of this argument I'm going to say the average market participant owns at least one stock like that.... but not based on simple earnings analysis. There is a huge behavioural component to that and that is what gets that average market participant done in.

      But to bring this discussion a bit closer to the original topic, I would bet 25% of my portfolio that the model presented in this article (if followed to the letter) will underperform the S&P500 index between now and 2020. If you don't see how, then that is not a problem per se but  my advice would be to stay away from it.
  • Ishan Majumdar posts: 21 hr ago
    Netflix Might Not Be as Exciting as It Looks
    The company has been one of the most...
    Comment
  • jtdaniel commented on Robert Abbott's article 21 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 9 comments
    jtdaniel 01-22 10:33
    • Hi Stephen, I think your idea is very sound for the patient and disciplined investor. It would only require a monthly or quarterly check of the CAPE ratio (i.e. buy if below 15) and the confidence to act when the opportunity is on. Best, dj
  • TodWong commented on James Li's article 21 hr ago
    A Look at Valuations for Top European and Asian Markets
    Even though the U.S. markets were closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, European and Asian markets still made headlines on Monday. Such...
    View all 1 comment
    TodWong 01-22 10:04
    • IF you have a hammer, does everything looks like nail?
  • stephenbaker commented on Robert Abbott's article 21 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 8 comments
    stephenbaker 01-22 10:02
    • Batbeer, let me clarify:  I'm not advocating ever being out of the market other than with new money.  If as I stated, an otherwise uninformed investor buys an S&P 500 index fund with all accumulated cash once the CAPE ratio falls below its long term mean, continues to buy with all new funds while the CAPE ratio remains below its long term mean, and accumulates cash whenever the CAPE ratio rises above its long term mean, I believe the investor will outperform. 
  • jtdaniel commented on Robert Abbott's article 21 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 7 comments
    jtdaniel 01-22 09:58
    • Hi Robert,

      Thank you for this great series. I am anxious to go through the book with red ink pen and highlighter.

      Hi Batbeer, surely Buffett and Lynch compared current price to average earnings over their careers? The CAPE is a great tool, but I doubt its appearance would have significantly changed their process. I am probably a below average investor, but I was averaging earnings as a starting point to value Exxon and Dow before I ever heard of Dr. Shiller. As for the average investor who does not accumulate any weath at all by investing in equities -- is this truly an investor or just a whipsawed speculator? Leaving aside day-traders and options addicts, an average investor who dollar cost averages into a few good DRIPs (say KO, HD and JNJ) or into SPY via their 401(K) could hardly help but accumulate some wealth over time. Best, dj   

       
  • batbeer2 commented on Robert Abbott's article 22 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 6 comments
    batbeer2 01-22 08:58
    • Hi Stephen,

      Yes, you could do worse but that's like saying there are quicker ways to lose money. Take a good look at that second chart. If you had been an investor since say.... 1970 studying this you would conclude that selling at levels over 25 might be a good idea (and perhaps buying below 20). Within the framework of this article that would be a rational conclusion to draw back then because it would help you avoid the major crashes and participate in the great bull runs.

      You would be buying for 20 years until the early 90s (good) and by then you'd be out of the game.

      You'd be back again in 2008 (good) and gone by 2011.

      In all, you'd be out of the market half the time since 1970. I'm not going to do the math on your real rates of return since 1970 but they wouldn't be good. 

      Now you could rotate in and out of sectors using this model but believe me, that would worsen your outcome. Point is, there are simpler and more effective frameworks and so this one is wrong. Just buy a cheap S&P index fund. That's easier to do and with much better returns. 

       
  • bupafinance9 post a new topic 23 hr ago
    LEASE AND PURCHASE BG/SBLC
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  • jtdaniel commented on Robert Abbott's article 23 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 5 comments
    jtdaniel 01-22 08:45
    • Hi Robert,

      Thank you for this great series. I am anxious to go through the book with red ink pen and highlighter.

      Hi Batbeer, surely Buffett and Lynch compared current price to average earnings over their careers? The CAPE is a great tool, but I doubt its appearance would have significantly changed their process. I am probably a below average investor, but I was averaging earnings as a starting point to value Exxon and Dow before I ever heard of Dr. Shiller. As for the average investor who does not accumulate any weath at all by investing in equities -- is this truly an investor or just a whipsawed speculator? Leaving aside day-traders and options addicts, an average investor who dollar cost averages into a few good DRIPs (say KO, HD and JNJ) or into SPY via their 401(K) could hardly help but accumulate some wealth over time. Best, dj   

       
  • stephenbaker commented on Robert Abbott's article 23 hr ago
    Modern Value Investing: CAPE and Long-Term Investing
    There is the price-earnings ratio and there is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, ratio. In wrapping up chapter five of “Modern Value...
    View all 4 comments
    stephenbaker 01-22 07:54
    • Hi Batbeer,

      I understand what you are saying.  That said, if you are truly a long term investor with no interest or accumen for selecting individual investments, you could do worse than simply piling up cash until the CAPE ratio dropped under its long term mean and then invest the cash into an S&P 500 fund or the equivalent.  Rinse and repeat for an investment lifetime. 
  • katiegillet5 commented on GlobeNewswire's article 01-22 04:31
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  • vishu15217 commented on Holly LaFon's article 01-22 00:50
    Bill Nygren Comments on Netflix
    We purchased Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in the quarter because its share price fell roughly 40% from its July high. We’ve owned Netflix in the Oakmark...
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    Bill Nygren Comments on eBay
    eBay (EBAY) operates three growing and highly cash generative businesses that connect buyers and sellers of lower volume, harder-to-find items. The...
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  • vishu15217 commented on Holly LaFon's article 01-22 00:36
    David Herro Comments on General Motors
    Financial industry holdings, such as Lloyds, impaired portfolio return in 2018, and the consumer durables industry, including automobile...
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    Mario Gabelli Comments on AMETEK
    AMETEK (NYSE:AME) (2.1% of net assets as of September 30, 2018) (AME – $79.12 – NYSE) is a diversified supplier of highly engineered equipment...
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    Ron Baron Comments on Tesla
    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the leading manufacturer and distributor of luxury electric automobiles and lithium batteries, has been subject to intense...
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  • vishu15217 commented on Holly LaFon's article 01-22 00:10
    Invesco European Growth Fund Comments on John Wood Group PLC
    UK-based energy company John Wood Group PLC (LSE:WG.) was the largest individual contributor to relative return during the quarter. The company...
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    Bill Nygren Comments on CVS Health
    Unlike many of the high P/E stocks in this sector, our largest holding—CVS Health—sells at only 10 times expected earnings. In November, CVS...
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2019-01-21

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