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  • Okuden26 updated contact information. 2 hr ago
  • ostermeier.ph commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 7 hr ago
    Some Tips on Avoiding Value Traps
    Value investing can be a lucrative style of investing, but it is a research-intensive process. If you are not willing to do the amount of research...
    View all 4 comments
    ostermeier.ph 11-18 05:39
    • Simple great article!
  • bmayerle1 commented on Hugo Roque's article 13 hr ago
    Stocks Are a Safer Investment
    In Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s 2014 shareholders letter, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave to investors a profound piece of...
    View all 5 comments
    bmayerle1 11-18 00:07
    • I will certainly look into the developments in Argentina. You ask "where should workers invest their income to preserve purchasing power?" I do believe that the small, retail investor should at least look into allocating some money to Series I Savings Bonds if they want to be certain that $1 they invest is worth $1 in the future. These bonds are truly unique; their credit quality is without question, they earn a composite interest rate that adjusts to the level of inflation, they are accrual bonds that compound over 30 years and after one year they can *always* be redeemed at par - something that is not guaranteed with marketable securities. They are tax deferred until they are sold, and are exempt from state and local taxes, which in essence enhances their yield relative to corporate bonds and equities. An investor is only allowed to purchase $5,000 per social security number, per year, but that is a meaningful sum for many retail investors. Then, of course, there are TIPS, but they are slightly more complicated than savings bonds.

      Historically, single family homes in quality neighborhoods have proven to be good inflation hedges, but to do this successfully is a much greater commitment than many alternative investments. There is of course gold, which in times of high inflation has gained considerably in value. Gold can be volatile, in the short run.

      If high inflation returns, corporate profits will decline and stocks will be volatile. That will present opportunities to true contrarian investors. When valuations are attractive, investors who hold thousands of dollars in those savings bonds can redeem them in order to purchase common stock in quality firms, which will be a boon when prices stabilize and profits return. As for the liability-side of our personal balance sheets, eliminating debt that carries a variable interest rate would be prudent in the face of growing inflation. Will the average person do any of these things? Probably not, but then again none of us are on this site because we want to do what the average person does. In any event, I appreciate the dialogue over this subject. Thank you.

Yesterday

  • Hugo Roque commented on Hugo Roque's article 20 hr ago
    Stocks Are a Safer Investment
    In Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s 2014 shareholders letter, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave to investors a profound piece of...
    View all 4 comments
    Hugo Roque 11-17 16:59
    • Agree that the stream of income from salary is a real asset and also an hedge against inflation. But, for example, in agregatte there are few countries where since 2009 workers have recover their purchasing power... But if you are Cristiano Ronaldo or Lebron James, you are probably not bad at all...

      But the question still stand. Where should workers invest their income to perserve their purchasing power?

      Please check what hapenned to the Argentinian Stock Index since 2000. Fixed income investors lost almost everything has currency devalued significantly in 2001/2. Stocks also correct, but some years later they were providing investors positive returns, even after conversion to dollars or euros...

      Regards,

      Hugo
  • Mayank Marwah posts: 23 hr ago
    Ford to Partner With Walmart to Design Driverless Delivery Vehicles
    The second largest U.S. automaker Ford (F), Walmart (WMT) and delivery service Postmates have come together to explore how they can make use of driverless technology to deliver food stuffs and other consumer goods to Walmart customers. In fact,...
    Comment
  • Shuda Xia posts: 11-17 13:09
    Weekly Top Insider Buys Highlight for the Week of Nov. 16
    Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD):...
    Comment
  • nagesh raj commented on reliablemandate's topic 11-17 11:31
    BG/SBLC PROVIDER
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    nagesh raj 11-17 11:31
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  • bmayerle1 commented on Hugo Roque's article 11-17 10:58
    Stocks Are a Safer Investment
    In Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s 2014 shareholders letter, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave to investors a profound piece of...
    View all 3 comments
    bmayerle1 11-17 10:58
    • Noted. My comments were in reply to the sentiment that "investing in stocks for the long term is the best option to safeguard purchasing power." If the inflation of the '70s persisted much longer or got much worse, the long term return on the total stock market would likely look very different. Remember that inflation affects the cost structure of the firms and not just consumer prices. The notion that firms can raise prices over inflation consistently and indefinitely is dubious. Rather, firms face increasing borrowing costs - that stay high even when inflation has abated - and during the '70s faced discontent among workers unless they received consistent wage increases. Inflation was a crisis for these reasons and others. Stocks "came back", because inflation was reversed*

      I agree with you that during inflationary periods, the total stock market should perform better than fixed-coupon bonds. I disagree, however, that stocks are the safest way to preserve purchasing power during high inflation. Buffett was asked this very question at the annual meeting in 2003 and he said the best hedge against inflation is to be so good at your career that you can expect meaningful raises. I'm sure the questioner was dissappointed, but I belive that answer is closest to the truth.

       
  • vgm commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 11-17 10:52
    JPMorgan: A Perfect Buffett Business
    As I covered yesterday, in the third quarter of 2018, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) spent over $12 billion...
    View all 4 comments
    vgm 11-17 10:52
    • As far as I'm aware, Buffett reduced his Wells holding marginally to avoid exceeding 10% ownership of the bank, for regulatory reasons. Berkshire's percentage ownership was rising on account of share buybacks.

      Despite its recent problems, he has continued to laud Wells as a business. I agree with Praveen that WFC is probably the better value at present.
  • cmrdahorseactltd commented on John Kinsellagh's article 11-17 09:44
    Home Depot: Looking Behind the Numbers
    The Home Depot Inc. (HD) reported third-quarter earnings that were significantly higher than the same period last year. Same-store sales revealed...
    View all 1 comment
    cmrdahorseactltd 11-17 09:44
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  • Rupert Hargreaves commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 11-17 04:40
    JPMorgan: A Perfect Buffett Business
    As I covered yesterday, in the third quarter of 2018, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) spent over $12 billion...
    View all 3 comments
    Rupert Hargreaves 11-17 04:40
    • @VGM, that is worth noting, I didn't know that at the time of writing the article. Thank you. 

      @Praveen it is interesting to note Berkshire reduced its holding in WFC in Q3, only slightly (2%), but compared to the adding of BAC ($6bn +) it seems this bank has fallen out of favor with Buffett
  • Hugo Roque commented on Hugo Roque's article 11-17 01:34
    Stocks Are a Safer Investment
    In Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s 2014 shareholders letter, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave to investors a profound piece of...
    View all 2 comments
    Hugo Roque 11-17 01:34
    • Yes, of course. In the same period Berkshire manage to do about 20% a year or more than 1.800.000%. So, opportunistic selection and buying played a crucial role there.

      The point that you bring is also very important, because great long term results imply sometimes enduring long periods of underperformance. You mention the 68-82 period, and we can also point out that Berkshire itself between 98-08 lost 40%! So, its a mental challenge.

      It will never be easy. But it wont be easy with Bonds also. And the periods of underperformance can be much longer.

2018-11-16

  • Thomas Macpherson commented on Grahamites's article 11-16 20:41
    Why It's Almost Always a Mistake to Sell Compounding Machines
    Chuck Akre (Trades, Portfolio) was the keynote speaker of this year’s GuruFocus Value Conference. During the Q&A session, somebody asked Akre what...
    View all 4 comments
    Thomas Macpherson 11-16 20:41
    • Anchoring and confirmation bias can make it very difficult to admit that a long term and successful investment is no longer the compounding machine you thought it once was. It took me losing 25% of my profits and three go arounds with my DCF models, risk assessments, etc. before I could admit Ansys (ANSS) wasn’t the juggernaut I had invested in 13 years earlier. Just my $.02 worth. Thanks for a great article. Best - Tom
  • Praveen Chawla commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 11-16 15:54
    JPMorgan: A Perfect Buffett Business
    As I covered yesterday, in the third quarter of 2018, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) spent over $12 billion...
    View all 2 comments
    Praveen Chawla 11-16 15:54
    • Looks quite overvalued when viewed on a historical basis.  I suspect Well-Fargo (another Buffett bank) is a better value at this time.
  • richday101 commented on Holly LaFon's article 11-16 13:52
    Warren Buffett's Berkshire Buys 4 Stocks, Sells Walmart in 3rd Quarter
    Berkshire Hathaway, where investing legend Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) is CEO and chairman, unveiled its third-quarter portfolio on Wednesday...
    View all 3 comments
    richday101 11-16 13:52
    • Thanks, Holly. I meant to say "first time they bought BRK shares since 2012." Could GF include the buys on "Buffett stock picks" table.
  • Alberto Abaterusso posts: 11-16 13:43
    PepsiCo Declares Quarterly Dividend
    The U.S. snack and beverage giant is expected to pay 92.75 cents per ordinary share on Jan. 7 to shareholders of...
    Comment
  • richday101 commented on GuruFocus's article 11-16 13:40
    Warren Buffett Buys Bank of America Corporation, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Oracle Corp, Sells Phillips 66, Wells Fargo & Co, Sanofi SA
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) Buys Bank of America Corporation, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Oracle Corp, Sells Phillips 66, Wells Fargo & Co, Sanofi...
    View all 1 comment
    richday101 11-16 13:40
    • GuruFocus has missed a very noteworthy purchase by Berkshire Hathaway of it's own stock (BRK.A and BRK.B) in the 3rd Qtr, the first purchases since 2012. See details below:

      https://on.wsj.com/2zq1ifo   Nov 4 WSJ quote: "Berkshire Hathaway Inc. repurchased $928 million of its stock in the third quarter, a rare move that indicates Chairman Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) sees a dearth of appealing investment options for his company’s large cash pile"

      https://bit.ly/2PZCsx9   Nov 6 in Barrons: "The company said it bought 225 Class A shares at an average price of $312,806.74 and 4,139,192 shares of Class B shares at $207.09, for a total outlay of $927.57 million".

      These buybacks indicates Buffett feels BRK shares are undervalued at 3rd Qtr prices. The BRK.A and BRK.B buys should be reflected in GuruFocus "Buffett stock picks".   https://bit.ly/2TirD8p

       

       

       
  • Holly LaFon posts: 11-16 13:36
    Chris Davis on the Current Market: 'We Believe Lower Prices Increase Future Returns'
    While recent wild market swings may have felt stomach-churning and sent some investors running for cover, Chris Davis (Trades, Portfolio), Portfolio Manager and Chairman of Davis Advisors, reminds investors that, “market corrections are the...
    Comment
  • Omar Venerio posts: 11-16 11:55
    3 Stocks Fall Friday
    Shares of Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) fell almost 13% after the company posted third-quarter earnings of 95 cents per share, on revenue of $1.36 billion, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year growth. The company beat earnings estimates by 1 cent but...
    Comment
  • vgm commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 11-16 11:13
    JPMorgan: A Perfect Buffett Business
    As I covered yesterday, in the third quarter of 2018, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) spent over $12 billion...
    View all 1 comment
    vgm 11-16 11:13
    • It's perhaps worth mentioning that Buffett, in an interview on CNBC several years ago, revealed that he held JPM stock in his personal (ie, not Berkshire) portfolio. 
  • Rupert Hargreaves posts: 11-16 11:00
    Is Rising Volatility a Sign of an Upcoming Bear Market?
    At the same time, some of the index's...
    Comment
  • bmayerle1 commented on Hugo Roque's article 11-16 10:45
    Stocks Are a Safer Investment
    In Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)’s 2014 shareholders letter, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) gave to investors a profound piece of...
    View all 1 comment
    bmayerle1 11-16 10:45
    • Interesting article. Certainly if one had invested in the S&P 500 companies in 1964, the return over 50 years was substantial, and if one had invested in BRK in 1965, the returns since would have been far greater. But it is an indisputable fact that from 1968 to 1982, during the most inflationary period of the 20th century in America, the S&P 500 lost ~50% in real, after inflation, terms. It is noteworthy that much of the gains in real terms were posted only during the period of falling inflation since 1981.

      Buffett himself wrote in the late '70s that inflation is a net negative for equity investment, and his holdings during the inflationary '70s were bought during deep corrections (Washington Post and GEICO), included many commodity stocks (Kaiser Aluminum, ALCOA, Handy & Harman, Amerada Hess and Cleveland-Cliffs), and had much faster turnover than his investments from the '80s onward. 
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  • Omar Venerio posts: 11-16 10:19
    Wall Street Turns Red on Friday
    U.S. stocks retreated on Friday morning, while trade tensions and political risks persist. In Europe, U.K. retail sales declined 0.5% in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.17% to 25,246, the S&P 500 index lost 0.25% to 2,723, and...
    Comment
  • Alberto Abaterusso posts: 11-16 10:06
    Buy Altria and British American Tobacco
    Altria Group Inc. (MO) declined 10% to $57.28 per share, and...
    Comment
  • shb600 commented on Grahamites's article 11-16 09:03
    Why It's Almost Always a Mistake to Sell Compounding Machines
    Chuck Akre (Trades, Portfolio) was the keynote speaker of this year’s GuruFocus Value Conference. During the Q&A session, somebody asked Akre what...
    View all 3 comments
    shb600 11-16 09:03
    • Identifying the future compounding machines from the hundreds/thousands of stocks that only appear to be compunding machines is the the hard part. Not selling is easy. That's why there is one Buffett and millions of pretenders.
  • denisganiu commented on Alberto Abaterusso's article 11-16 05:11
    How to Determine the Intrinsic Value of a Gold Stock
    If you want to estimate the intrinsic value of a gold mining stock, better known as its "real value," it's important to consider a pair of factors as...
    View all 1 comment
    denisganiu 11-16 05:11
    • Could you please show how you computed the equation line of a trend
  • TonyTiger commented on John Kinsellagh's article 11-16 02:22
    Is It Time for Investors to Look Overseas?
    The pummeling stocks sustained in October is over, but the carnage has left some wondering whether sky-high valuations in some sectors have overshot...
    View all 2 comments
    TonyTiger 11-16 02:22
    • Global markets are now fully synchronized: when the US markets gets a cold, emerging markets check in to intensive care.

      Yes, you can buy assets in other countries cheaper than the US right now, but they will get much cheaper if there is a bear market in the US. Saw this already in 2000 and 2007... Until you can buy emerging market stocks at price to cash rations around 1 they are not yet cheap...
  • optivofinanceplc commented on Johnson Bruce's topic 11-16 00:54
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    optivofinanceplc 11-16 00:53
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2018-11-15

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