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SeaBud

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  • SeaBud commented on Paul Dykewicz's article 01-15 08:53
    Buffett, Bogle and Siegel Miss Out by Not Using Market-Directional Investing, Portfolio Manager Says
    Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), John Bogle, Jeremy Siegel and many major financial companies are wrong about favoring buy-and-hold investing...
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    SeaBud 01-15 08:53
    • Do not confuse timing with opportunity.  The Turner band is a reflection of the past.  This may, or may not, represent opportunity.  Opportunity is defined unrelated to timing.  Opportunity is when intrinsic value exceeds price.  Intrinsic value has many indicators (book value, FCF/owner earnings, rev growth).  Substituting "market direction" for analyzing value makes no sense.  If you are going to analyze value, analyze it, not a proxy for it.

      Buffett holding cash illustrates a lack of opportunity, not a conclusion as to timing.  I gaurantee that if a large opportunity was exposed in this currently richly priced market, Buffett would jump. 

      There is zero evidence that market timing (especially based on historical quantitative measures) is effective over time.  This applies to timing based on "value" or "market direction." Take the transaction costs, lost dividends and tax implications into account and see how the author's model does. He says "there are no major losses due to bear markets" - I consider a 20% or 35% (short term tax on gains) hit on my profits a major loss.  Put it this way - where is the actual outperformance of this system rather than charts of historical backdata based on an algorithm tailored to optimize results from said backdata? 

      Very fancy to call something "market directional" as opposed to discredited "market timing".  Despite the label, consider the description: "The key to knowing when to be in the market or out of the market is constantly to measure the market trend and react appropriately when the trend changes. The strategy is aimed at investing bullishly in bull markets, going to cash in transition markets and becoming bearish in bear markets."  Nobody bases "market timing" on "time".  They all use some valuation proxy to justify timed market entry/exit.  This is market timing using a proxy buy/sell signal.

      Personally, I prefer to buy anything when it is cheap and sell when it is expensive.  That means buying more in bear markets and sitting on more cash in bull markets.  That is not timing, but represents opportunity. The most consistent measure of value, in my opinion, is value. If one of my holdings becomes egregiously overvalued with limited further value growth and risk that exceeds tax losses on gains, I sell.  That is a high bar.
  • SeaBud commented on Marketwired's article 01-10 12:50
    AxoGen, Inc. Preannounces Estimated Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Revenue
    Q4 Revenue will be at least $16.5 million, representing 45% growth over prior year2017 Revenue will be at least $60.0 million, representing 46%...
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    SeaBud 01-10 12:50
    • Not sure if others have followed this company, but I put a note on the forum a couple years ago when it was at $4/share.  Essentially, they sell a product that helps repair nerves.  It is as good or better than the "gold standard" treatment - an autograph.  An autograph requires that you harvest tissue (nerve) from the patient - another surgery that bears costs to the surgeon and damage/risk to the patient.  They preannounced at least $80M in earnings for this coming year with a market for their product of $1.6B (takes time to educate surgeons and change behavior).  Averaging 50% YOY growth for last several years.  Not a value stock but a very interesting one.
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