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cdubey Message

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  • Steffen Jørgens 2014-08-05 16:59
    cdubey: Hello Stefen,

    I am on brief hiatus from Gurufocus (and investing in general) because my thesis is due in a month.

    As a rule, I try to avoid compani
    Thank you for your reply. Actually I have lost interest in KSB due to their large amount of preferred stock. The general rule is that preferred stock must be included in the shares outstanding to get the real market cap, and this doubles KSB's market value - sadly

    Regards, Steffen
  • Steffen Jørgens 2014-07-04 06:43

    I have read your good analysis about KSB AG and I know it's a quite old analysis but still relevant and interesting. I am also very interested in this company, but there is one single thing that frustrates me about the company and I would like to hear your opinion about this:

    They have enourmus liabilities to pension funds and other employee benefits as you can see on their balance sheet. They have around 520 mEUR in pension liabilities which is partly countered by their huge cash pile (I wonder why it is only cash and not some kind of marketable securities). If you look in note 8 you can see that they expect these pension expenses will grow from around 13 mEUR today to 20 mEUR in 3-5 years (page 104 if in their FY13 if I remember exact). I don't like to see so high pension liabilities but they are quite normal in Germany, but I am afraid that this will hurt the company's future profitability a lot.

    What is your opinion about this? I have also commented in your article about KSB.

  • nametwo 2013-06-13 12:42
    Good writeup on http://www.gurufocus.com/news/216048/value-idea-contest--ch-robinson-chrw

    But I am confused about your final conclusion.
    You say you will only buy below 31 (if I read it correctly).  But you still submitted this for a value-idea contest starting from todays price of 59.

    What am I missing?
  • batbeer2 2013-05-30 06:31
    cdubey: Hey !

    JAKK is trading around $10 now. I am reading their annual reports and am trying to get a sense of the management. Did you have time to take a l
    Hi CD,

    I looked at Jakk a few years ago. At these prices I think it's very cheap. As for management, I think they are doing a good job. If memory serves, they own a big chunk of the business. I think they are overpaid though and because of this, I have a feeling their interests could be better aligned with minority shareholders.

    In any case, it didn't stop me from owning Jakk for a while (I believe at 12 a few years ago).

    If I find something, I'll let you know. I knew it had fallen somewhat but I didn't know it was almost in the single digits now.

  • MritikCapital 2013-05-13 09:17
    cdubey: I understand that the note give you better safety in case the company files for bankruptcy i.e., they come prior to equity holders, and offer you a co
    Hi Chandan,
    Thanks for your thoughts. If shares rise significantly by Jan 2016, common does provide more upside.

  • MritikCapital 2013-05-13 07:03
    Hi Chandan,

    What is your preference of MTCN vs MT? The company is a tough business but I am willing to dig further to see if there may be a reasonable risk reward proposition here.
  • MritikCapital 2013-04-26 12:31
    cdubey: A company which I am watching very closely. I have sold a Jan 2015 put at strike price $57.5 for $7.34. The reason is that my target buy price is $60.
    Thanks for sharing the thoughts.
    Yes makes sense. I really like the management and the fact that they grown the company using organic cashflow and clear the debt after acquisitions. I too am comfortable with a larger position at $50-$55 range (close to book value as well). I think once they don't see too many avenues for growth they will start paying our more to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. Lets see, I too have sold Jan 2015 puts but for $65.
  • MritikCapital 2013-04-26 09:16
    Hi Chandan, What is your take on $65 for NOV today? They seem to have a wide moat business, reasonable financial strength and a backlog. Your thoughts appreciated.
  • ry.zamora 2012-07-16 12:58

    I've been reading the few articles you've written on Holcim, Ltd., and I've liked it enough that I have begun a full-blown analysis of its business (and needless to say, I'm impressed with Holcim's consistent and evolving levels of transparency!)

    I just want to ask you about your pie chart in the Feb 27 2012 article on the cement industry. The one containing cement production and cement capacity on a global scale. I've tried running a search on Google to find a statistical database for historical numbers, but I've been unsuccessful so far. Would you happen to know where these numbers are located in the first place?

    Ry Zamora
  • gurufocus 2012-03-16 19:43
    cdubey: Love the design of the new website. Very clean !
    Thanks! If you have any feedback or see something not working properly, please let us know.
  • C.W.R. 2012-02-15 12:04
    cdubey: Thanks for the compliments. I am far from well versed.

    I made many mistakes in my short investing life (since Dec 2009). At the moment I am trying to
    Good stuff CDubey, thanks for this.  I agree with your goal of slimming down your portfolio to include only 10 - 20 holdings.  This seems to be a widely counseled practice.  I myself have an ideal portfolio of only 30 stocks but in reality my portfolio probably won't go over 15 - 20 holdings.

    As far as my research I do the following:
    1) I limit my watch-list to stocks over 1B and that have paid continuous dividends for the past 10 years in a row.  That means just over 1000 U.S stocks and about 300 international ADR's.  I narrowed down the U.S. stocks to just the top 3 per major industry group (according to the ICB) - which leaves me with 30 U.S. companies.
    2) I record the past 10 years of dividends and average them.  My favorite stocks are those that have averaged over 5% dividend yield over the past 10 years.  Then I preset my favorite buy price for these securities.  My prices are quite low, so I will probably never own most of them until the next major market correction/stock market crash.
    3) I do go through the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statements and record the past 10 years of select data to get my own picture of "what's up" with the company.
    4) I use google.finance, morningstar, gurufocus, yahoo.finance and FT to find the 10 years data.  

    That's about it.  Thanks again and stay in touch!

  • C.W.R. 2012-02-15 02:37

    Since you are obviously well-versed in the practice of analyzing companies, I have a few questions for you.  First, do you prefer company annual reports or SEC 10-K's and 20-F's?  Secondly, how many years of annual statements do you go back in your analysis?  

    Then, I was wondering how you keep track of your research.  Are you content with browsing GuruFocus 10-year financial data to refresh your memory on a stock or do you have your own database?

    Thanks for your help!


  • aretrade 2011-11-06 15:09
    Cdubey, your analyses are indeed very impressive, thoroughly conducted and valuable. I am a researcher around at ETHZ, with some other talents than yours. Would be interesting to see you once in Switzerland.
    Cheers, aretrade
  • Billypilgram 2011-10-17 22:50
    Are you a professional investor? As I am new to this, I am in awe of the thought and research you put into rating a stock, so much so I invested in MT which has made money thus far Thanks for taking time to answer
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