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  • algaar999 commented on Vitaliy Katsenelson's article 10-09 19:12
    Why the Gasoline Car to the EV Is Like the Horse to the Car
    This article is Part 2 of an 11-part series analysis of Tesla (TSLA), Elon Musk and EV Revolution. Read Part 1 here. The complexity of the...
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    algaar999 10-09 20:12
    • Thanks Vitaliy.  I like your horse to car analogy, but I think there is an even more important force than the hardware components - and that is the energy.  As a consumer, I can make electricty in my front yard (or rooftop).  I cannot make gasoline. 

      Yes, Yes, solar, wind, etc. energy is not efficient yet to cause a tipping point, but - like all technology - it will continue improving.  I think it is safe to say it will never be efficient for consumers to make their own gasoline.

      There are also any number ancilliary effects related to the emphasis on automobile electrification - like ...

      ... distribution.  Less traffic from obviating the need for petrol trucks.  Less distribution cost because no need to manually handle and transport a volatile liquid.

      ... easier management of pollution.  It's true that creating electricity causes its own pollution (but so does manufacturing gasoline).  A key difference is that distribution of electricty is relatively pollution free.  So, with electrification, pollution champions can focus their energy on a single source - the point of origination.

      ... fewer consumer power disruptions.  Having a nation full of distributed power sources will help with national emergencies, national defence, etc.  If a storm knocks out your power, imagine not only running your air conditioner, but (before the juice runs out) driving to a live power point, recharging and returning home to run your a/c some more.  Help yourself; help your neighbor.  Self help disaster relief.  Amazing!  Not perfect, but a huge improvement over just waiting on the power company to sort things out.

      The only other comment I will make is this - I believe it is a mistake when Auto companies mix automobile electrification and automation.  Electrification seems far easier to achieve more quickly (the issue is improving what already works well, but for too short a time).  Automation remains too dependent on innovations yet to come - very worthy to pursue, but a distraction in the short term for company management (and society) from transformational benefits that are currently just out of reach but should be relatively easy to achieve within existing systems (power grid, regulatory, etc.).
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