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  • softdude2000 2017-06-16 05:51
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Yes and no. This is a pretty simple business with a lot of revenue. They are not generating enough cash now but that IMHO is a choice. T
    SHOS management is investing(in IT infra and rebranding) as if there is no doubt as a going concern for this business. Market is treating as if they are going to close doors.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-15 18:34
    Other than balance sheet, do you see any safety in cash flow statement/income of SHOS.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 17:18
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Bricks and mortar are expensive but so is IT infrastructure.

    I don't think the IT expenses are on the downstream side (webshop). I thi
    Thanks for the reply.

    Is this IT system worth anything if they close down their business?
    I am trying to understand if there is any resale value from IT system in addition to NCAV discount we see.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 05:13
    I was reading latest 10-Q for SHOS. what caught my attention is that they spent 10M, 15M in 2015 and 2016 for IT related stuff. They are planning another $20M in 2017 and ~0 in 2018. 1. I dont get this. A company with 70M marketcap spending $45M on IT expenses. Did I understand this right? Did they forget we are in cloud computing era? Is there any referral fee for AWS :) I can charge them. 2. Does this mean huge upside waiting in 2018 that frees up $15M average annual expense? 3 ...
  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked. I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations. best, ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Mark Yu's article 03-15 03:09
    Boeing Is Presenting an Opportunity
    At this point, 51 countries have taken the wings off of Boeing Co.’s (BA) 737 Max aircraft following the Ethiopian Airlines crash.For safety...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 03-15 04:09
    • >> There is no doubt Boeing will be able to carry on beyond the present turbulence in its long flight.

      Yes, I would bet significant money that Boeing will be building planes in 10 years. 

      BUT

      At what cost to shareholders?  The undisputed facts are that Boeing has had existential problems for the last two planes it has introduced. They fixed the first one (787) but this does raise the question why they can't they get it right first time? 

      Some tech stuff....

      The 737 is a low plane (short landing gear). This is a deliberate design feature. You can get luggage in and out easily at any airport with basic equipment. This is why low-cost carriers like the 737. They use them to fly to secondary airports. However, this is also an old design and engines are getting larger as they get more efficient. You'll notice the flat bit at the bottom of the engines of all modern 737s. They had to squash the bottom of the engine because it wouldn't fit under the wing.

      So now the max 8 has even larger engines. They repositioned them a bit further to the front of the plane so they could hang them higher relative to the wing. But this has a significant impact on the flight characteristics of the plane. Boeing introduced some software so the plane would "simulate" the way the old design flew. That's a hack/shortcut so they wouldn't have to retrain the pilots.

      Now if there's even a hint of an issue with that, then that's a major problem! It's not like a battery catching fire that you can swap out. At best this will require extra training for all those pilots. Now you have two different certifications for two different types. Low-cost operators won't like that. It does not matter if this is what caused the crash in Ethiopia. If pilots start complaining about how the new plane tends to behave differently under extreme conditions then this is going to be hugely expensive for Boeing. 

      IMO there is a very good chance that airlines are going to argue that this plane is not doing what Boeing promised and that's going to be expensive.

      I don't have a horse in this race (just watching from the sidelines) but I think this is likely to get very ugly for Boeing before it gets better.
  • batbeer2 commented on Low Tide Investments's article 03-13 14:30
    Value Idea Contest: Scheid Vineyards Inc.
    Scheid Vineyards Inc. (OTCPK:SVIN) Price: $84 Shares outstanding: 883,086 Market cap: $74.2 million Cash: $1.7...
    View all 5 comments
    batbeer2 03-13 15:30
    • Interesting, thanks!

      I'll have to dig into the sec filings to get a more precise idea of the volumes and margins involved. One would expect there is a significant margin differential between cased goods and bulk. If not, then that raises other questions about their strategy.

      The thing I'd be most interested in is how volumes and margins and volumes break out across "direct to consumer" versus "to distributor". I don't expect that the mere act of putting it in a bottle before selling it to your distributor will take your gross margin from 30% to 60% (in the case of Scheid, back to 60%). 

      If and when I've had time to do the homework I hope to continue this discussion here.
  • batbeer2 commented on Low Tide Investments's article 03-12 00:08
    Value Idea Contest: Scheid Vineyards Inc.
    Scheid Vineyards Inc. (OTCPK:SVIN) Price: $84 Shares outstanding: 883,086 Market cap: $74.2 million Cash: $1.7...
    View all 3 comments
    batbeer2 03-12 01:08
    • >> Are you under the assumption that most of Scheid's revenue is currently derived from bulk?

      Yes.

      Am I missing something?
  • batbeer2 commented on Holly LaFon's article 03-10 03:42
    4 Stocks Join Ben Graham Net-Net Screener Friday
    Year to date, the market has gifted investors a 9.92% return, but it remains off 5.73% from the start of the fourth quarter. While many investors are...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 03-10 04:41
    • Hi Holly, I'm confused.

      I like a number of these stocks you mention. They are cheap. But by my reckoning, they are not net-nets. Perhaps you can help me figure it out.

      You say: ... a stock becomes a net-net when its price falls below the outcome of a simple formula ....

      So let's take Apyx. The per-share price is $7 and its NCAV is roughly $2.50 (depending on your formula). I'm using the latest (December) numbers as reported by GuruFocus.com. Also, I use a simpler formula but that doesn't really matter. Any way you cut it, the price exceeds the NCAV by a wide margin. 

      What am I missing?
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 03-10 03:01
    Value Idea Contest: Dundee Corp
    This article has taken me four years to write. Back in 2014 I promised a fellow GuruFocus contributor I would share my views on Dundee Corp....
    View all 16 comments
    batbeer2 03-10 04:01
    • Hi Macpoor1,

      Nice to know someone out there is reading this stuff.

      You say: I wonder if institutional investors are still in and the retail investors are one sold.

      I know Murray Stahl (Trades, Portfolio) and Francis Chou (Trades, Portfolio) have positions in this one. Two investors who deserve some respect. Stahl has complained a bit about how illiquid it is. As for Chou.... he seems to prefer illiquid stuff.

      FWIW I'd expect the institutional investors (if any) to be holding the debt and preferred. The shares, not so much. I don't know though. I don't have that data.

      The price today is IMHO totally absurd. They have a 20% stake in Dundee Precious metals. That stake alone is worth USD120m and their market cap is USD60m. Now we can argue a bit about how to discount the preferred and take account for the structure of the holding, but there is no way to come up with a liquidation value that's less than the current price.

      Meanwhile, they have been liquidating more of their positions.

      If they stick to their knitting, I guess they'll sell it all and distribute the DPM shares to their shareholders. In 2 weeks we'll know more.

       
  • batbeer2 commented on batbeer2's article 03-10 02:59
    Value Idea Contest: Dundee Corp
    This article has taken me four years to write. Back in 2014 I promised a fellow GuruFocus contributor I would share my views on Dundee Corp....
    View all 15 comments
    batbeer2 03-10 03:58
    • Hi Macpoor1,

      Nice to know someone out there is reading this stuff.

      You say: I wonder if institutional investors are still in and the retail investors are one sold.

      I know Murray Stahl (Trades, Portfolio) and Francis Chou (Trades, Portfolio) have positions in this one. Two investors who deserve some respect. Stahl has complained a bit about how illiquid it is. As for Chou.... he prefers the illiquid stuff.

      FWIW I'd expect the institutional investors (if any) to be holding the debt and preferred. The shares, not so much. I don't know though. I don't have that data.

      The price today is IMHO totally absurd. They have a 20% stake in Dundee Precious metals. That stake alone is worth USD120m and their market cap is USD60m. Now we can argue a bit about how to discount the preferred and take account for the structure of the holding, but there is no way to come up with a liquidation value that's less than the current price.

      Meanwhile, they have been liquidating more of their positions.

      If they stick to their knitting, I guess they'll sell it all and distribute the DPM shares to their shareholders. In 2 weeks we'll know more.

       
  • batbeer2 uploaded a new picture 04-22 11:42
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