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batbeer2  Batbeer

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  • softdude2000 2017-06-16 05:51
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Yes and no. This is a pretty simple business with a lot of revenue. They are not generating enough cash now but that IMHO is a choice. T
    SHOS management is investing(in IT infra and rebranding) as if there is no doubt as a going concern for this business. Market is treating as if they are going to close doors.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-15 18:34
    Other than balance sheet, do you see any safety in cash flow statement/income of SHOS.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 17:18
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Bricks and mortar are expensive but so is IT infrastructure.

    I don't think the IT expenses are on the downstream side (webshop). I thi
    Thanks for the reply.

    Is this IT system worth anything if they close down their business?
    I am trying to understand if there is any resale value from IT system in addition to NCAV discount we see.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 05:13
    I was reading latest 10-Q for SHOS. what caught my attention is that they spent 10M, 15M in 2015 and 2016 for IT related stuff. They are planning another $20M in 2017 and ~0 in 2018. 1. I dont get this. A company with 70M marketcap spending $45M on IT expenses. Did I understand this right? Did they forget we are in cloud computing era? Is there any referral fee for AWS :) I can charge them. 2. Does this mean huge upside waiting in 2018 that frees up $15M average annual expense? 3 ...
  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked. I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations. best, ...

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All batbeer2's Activities

  • batbeer2 commented on Hoang Quoc Anh's article 10 hr ago
    Groupe M6: A Cheap Television Network Yielding Nearly 9%
    The coronavirus outbreak and oil price plunge have tanked the stock market globally. While the situation is serious, the low prices of many...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 03-28 04:47
    • Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

      A question: Assuming advertising evenue drops by 30% or so for 6 months. Do you think they could pay their bills?
  • batbeer2 commented on Sydnee Gatewood's article 03-25 17:28
    Ray Dalio Commentary: The 3 Biggest Questions We Need to Answer Now
    The Three Big Questions Are 1) What is the Value of Human Life Relative to A Unit of Economic Activity, 2) What is the Value of Necessities Relative...
    View all 1 comment
    batbeer2 03-25 18:28
    • >> I dream of a day that we can discuss this well in an open and bipartisan way, and I fear a time that we be at each other’s throats fighting to get what we can.

      Here's some good news...

      You can discuss these matters in an open and multi-partisan way any day of the week. Including today. All you need to do is wake up to the fact that these questions are not specific to some relatively unimportant areas where people believe a choice between Trump and Biden will affect their future in important ways. The similarities shared by those two are greater than the differences.

      For one, both might believe that enacting some arcane law forcing manufacturers of respirators in the US to ramp up production while denying them the opportunity to sell a fair portion of the finished product outside of the US might be a good idea. Well... the Japanese and German suppliers providing the critical parts will immediately stop doing that if they know there will be no machines coming back. In fact, they already have. Next thing you know, Philips (yes, they make respirators in the US) moves their production line to say... South Korea in a matter of days because South Korea is willing to allow the machines to be manufactured there while also allowing the countries supplying parts to receive their fair share of the final product. This leaves the US with both a short-term medical and and long-term economic disaster.

      Meanwhile China is exporting millions of protective masks for medical professionals. For free. All the boxes are marked "courtesy of Huawei". 

      All because some idiots born in the 1940s would like to believe the US has an independent mnufacturing capability and can bully companies around. Those days are loooong gone.

      Just some thoughts.
  • batbeer2 commented on The Science of Hitting's article 03-21 17:33
    Investment Note - March 18, 2020
    I’m writing this after the market close on March 18, 2020. In today’s trading session, the S&P 500 declined by roughly 5%. Since the market...
    View all 12 comments
    batbeer2 03-21 18:33
    • >> Every single day, I am thinking of what would happen if my portfolio looses 40%, 50%, 60%. This market is unlike any other and the life after the virus would not be the same again, for sure. 

      Yes. If you worry about that I suggest you stop owning a portfolio or "the market". Instead consider owning pieces of businesses. There's a  big difference.

      Two examples:

      Through EMGC you can own the life insurance policy of a few hundred octgenarians. Should 10% of them die.... you get roughly $50m in cold cash. That's not a bad for a $60m company.

      In recent days, Youtube and Netflix have been asked by various countries to reduce the resolution of their vids due to a lack of global bandwidth. That might be good news for a company like Centurylink (CTL). The company is now trading at 4x FCF. Centurylink owns the most extensive and fastest global network. Your Internet provider almost certainly relies on their sevices. That network is called AS3356... look it up.


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