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  • softdude2000 2017-06-16 05:51
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Yes and no. This is a pretty simple business with a lot of revenue. They are not generating enough cash now but that IMHO is a choice. T
    SHOS management is investing(in IT infra and rebranding) as if there is no doubt as a going concern for this business. Market is treating as if they are going to close doors.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-15 18:34
    Other than balance sheet, do you see any safety in cash flow statement/income of SHOS.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 17:18
    batbeer2: Hi Softdude,

    Bricks and mortar are expensive but so is IT infrastructure.

    I don't think the IT expenses are on the downstream side (webshop). I thi
    Thanks for the reply.

    Is this IT system worth anything if they close down their business?
    I am trying to understand if there is any resale value from IT system in addition to NCAV discount we see.
  • softdude2000 2017-06-03 05:13
    I was reading latest 10-Q for SHOS. what caught my attention is that they spent 10M, 15M in 2015 and 2016 for IT related stuff. They are planning another $20M in 2017 and ~0 in 2018.

    1. I dont get this. A company with 70M marketcap spending $45M on IT expenses. Did I understand this right? Did they forget we are in cloud computing era? Is there any referral fee for AWS :) I can charge them.

    2. Does this mean huge upside waiting in 2018 that frees up $15M average annual expense?

    3. I am not sure I understand the whole issue.
  • batbeer2 2016-06-23 10:24
    Hi brinsley, thanks for the heads-up on Kone. Hadn't really looked at that one for a while and the P/E is not as high as it used to be last time I checked.

    I don't mnd the currency they report in. If Schindler moves its head office to Luxemburg then they start reporting in euros but the company remains otherwise unchanged. What matters is their costs. I would have to check out the Swiss headcount as compared to the total to determine if I'm worried about currency fluctuations.

  • brinsley 2016-06-23 06:01
    Following on from Schindler/Kone is that as you mention the earnings of Schindler are hurt by the strength of the Swiss Frank due to its haven status, which is not likely to go away, so Kone may be a better bet as they report in EUR and this currency has come down in the last couple of years. Despite this, the market still gives Schindler a higher multiple.
  • Arjun Chan 2016-04-08 08:33
    Batbeer2, Did you forgot to leave a comment on my article :-)
  • batbeer2 2015-12-29 11:36
    Hi Peter,

    Alas, I think Aggreko's future will be less impressive than its past.

    Nowadays a larger part of their business comes from constructing more or less permanent electricity plants and "renting" that out. One could say they have become a financing company for third-world countries who need electricity generation capacity but have no cash.

    I like the short-term rental business of the portable generators much much better.  That IMHO is still a fantatstic business but it is becoming a smaller part of the business each year.

    Send me an e-mail if you want to discuss this more; batbeer AT hotmail DOT com

  • peterkooi 2015-12-29 06:13
    Hi Batbeer 2,

    You said one year ago:  If there are questions about Aggreko, I would be happy to share what I know about this great company.

    You still believe that?


  • rgarga 2015-02-15 08:54
    Would like to have a conversation re posco if can? Maybe we can learn something from each other. 7066760284 or if yiu guve me your number, I can call you. Thank you.
  • batbeer2 2015-01-28 13:37
    Hi Tim,

    I believe it is possible to generate excess returns with technical analysis. It's just that anyone claiming it is easy is either lying or doesn't understand what it is really about.

    A friend of mine is a good (options) trader. If I had to hazard a guess he has an IQ well in excess of 155. The guy literally solves a 7 x 7 rubics cube blindfolded. He will gaze at it for 20 seconds and them proceed to solve it without looking at it again. That scares me.

    He is a very nice guy and he trades for fun. He usually has a very high success rate.

    And sometimes not.

    The problem is that when he fails he has absolutely no idea why. Not a clue. That is when he calls me. All I can tell him is that he probably overestimated the intelligence of the market.

    Not only do you have to be very smart, you have to predict how lesser mortals behave. And then there's the additional problem that as time goes by, different groups of investors with varying degrees of intelligence and/or investment horizons will determine what happens next.

    The good news is that to him this is an interesting puzzle. One he's been trying to solve for 20 years. The other good news is that I'm acutely aware what I'm up against if I start dabbling with options.

    I can only aspire to be a decent value investor (something that my friend is unable to do for lack of "challenge"). He admires the fact that I do all the boring grunt work and then can wait for years. He really does admire this and he knows it is effective but he just can't do it.

    Like Buffett said, you can beat Bobby Fisher at a lot of things, just not chess.

    Yes, it is possible to beat Bobby Fisher at chess (nowadays he's called Magnussen) but anyone who claims it's easy is not smart enough to do it.
  • trdoyle 2015-01-28 11:54
    Nice exchange with Dr. Price.  I fail to see how his data mining tactics can be applied with any reasonable amount of success going forward.

  • coryashpt 2015-01-22 13:23
    Hi Batbeer2,
    I was disappointed in IBM's inability to right the ship and grow revenue.  I am encouraged by the growing margins and growth in strategic areas, although still a small part of the company.  I was also disappointed they didn't buy back more shares at such a low level.  Any thoughts?


  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 22:36
    batbeer2: Hi Cory,

    Never heard of the company until now. I see that they have an office in Rotterdam which is my city. Shame on me. Often you'll see a company
    I think you will be pleasantly delighted by reading their shareholder reports and 10-ks.  They just increased the dividend today.  A very shareholder friendly company.  Now on sale of course but I am still trying to understand the moat they have enjoyed over the past 22 years or so.  Let's keep in touch on this.

    Best regards,

  • coryashpt 2015-01-12 13:26
    Hi Batbeer,

    With the demise of oil some stocks have come up on my radar.  One of which is CoreLabs.  I believe they are based in the Netherlands...and don't you live there?  Just wondering if you follow the company and if you have any insight as to what their competitive advantage is?  Their annual reports are interesting but I don't understand why a major oil company can't do what they do just as well.  As always your thoughts are appreciated.
  • batbeer2 2014-12-23 13:20
    Hi w1omega

    Maybe you can send me a link to the specific chart you mean.

    Do I think the S&P 500 is in a bubble?


    Frothy, yes but not in a bubble (yet).

    For me a bubble is when people borrow at a given rate (say 5%) to buy assets that yield less (say p/e of 30).

    The only reason people do that is because they "know" they can sell the asset later at a higher price. That's a bubble.

    That is also what happened with housing prices. The rental income that a home could fetch would be significantly less than the interest people were willing to pay on the mortgage.

    For many years people "knew" they could always sell that house at a gain later.

    With te S&P 500 at P/E of 16 (6%) or so and long-term bond rates at less than 4% I think we are still in reasonable teritory. No longer comfortable though.

  • w1omega 2014-12-23 08:43
    I read what you wrote about irrationality and I think we think similarly.  I think you also broke up a verbal fight online between me and some dude who is a fan of Bruce Greenwald.  Anyway, I thought I would ask what's been on my mind awhile now.  If you go to google finance and look up S&P 500 numbers for all the available dates, you see 3 distinct bumps on the right side.  

    I actually know a lot more about bubbles, not just the charts.  But I won't get into that here.  Does the chart look like a bubble?  Do you think we're in a bubble?
  • batbeer2 2014-12-20 02:44
    Hi cor7997,

    I continue to track GPG and indeed there is no news. I read the report that is published by their pension fund and if anything things are getting better.

    It is taking too long to reach an agreement with the regulators though.

  • cor7997 2014-12-20 02:36
    Hi Batb., any updates about GUINNESS PEAT GROUP whose stock is tumbling with no news?
  • coryashpt 2014-10-26 23:03
    What are the probabilities of you writing another B-M newsletter on CarboCeramics given their recent huge price decline?

    Any comments on IBM after their most recent quarterly report?  I took the plunge at $186 two weeks before earnings were released.  :)  I personally like the CEO and what she had to say.  The direction is correct, the speed of execution needs to improve.
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