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Ryan Harding

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  • Ryan Harding commented on Rupert Hargreaves's article 01-23 08:11
    Warren Buffett: Focus on a Company's Future Earnings Potential
    One of the biggest mistakes investors can make when valuing a business is spending too much time on what has happened rather than what could...
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    Ryan Harding 01-23 08:11
    • I took a major loss on shares in a local and regional newspaper business a few year ago as location aware internet technology started to steal away so many areas where they had been the gatekeepers for so many decades.

      Being aware of future risks and things that may upset your investment thesis is a vital skill to successful value investing, and choosing how much of your portfolio to risk on a high-conviction opportunity you should bear in mind the potential of a serious adverse change in the industry. Apple at $95 and around 10% earnings yield in May 2016 was a high conviction idea for me, but there was always that chance that what happened to Nokia or Blackberry could supplant the iPhone, so I limited initial exposure to 25% and mentally planned to limit long-run exposure to maybe 50% so that the rest of my portfolio could still meet my compounding needs if it failed.

      By the way, that Buffett quote presumably refers to $2.30 and $2.40, (or if you wish, 230 to 240 cents!), hence the 1988-9 average purchase price of $11 being under 5x 1994/5 EPS.
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