5 Predictable Retailers With a Margin of Safety

O'Reilly Automotive tops the list

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Mar 31, 2020
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According to the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener, a Premium feature, the following companies have high business predictability ratings and a wide margin of safety.

O’Reilly Automotive

O’Reilly Automative Inc. (ORLY, Financial) has a business predictability rank of five out of five stars and, according to the discounted cash flow calculator, a 39% margin of safety at an average price of $308 per share.

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The aftermarket auto parts retailer has a market cap of $22 billion and enterprise value of $28 billion. Over the past five years, its revenue has grown 6.8% and its earnings per share have grown 19.7%.

Over the past 12 months, the stock has decreased 21% and is currently trading with a price-earnings ratio of 17.07. The share price has been as high as $454.31 and as low as $251.52 in the last year. As of March 31, the stock was trading 32.21% below its 52-week high and 22.44% above its 52-week low.

With 2.5% of outstanding shares, Chuck Akre (Trades, Portfolio) is the company's largest guru shareholder, followed by Pioneer Investments (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.98% and David Abrams (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.69%.

Kohl’s

Kohl’s Corp. (KSS, Financial) has a three-star business predictability rank and, according to the DCF calculator, a 66% margin of safety at the average price of $15.85 per share.

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The department store chain has a market cap of $2.5 billion and an enterprise value of $7.86 billion. Over the past five years, its revenue has increased 1.2% and its earnings per share have grown 4.9%.

The stock has tanked 77% over the last 12 months and shares are trading with a price-earnings ratio of 3.69. The share price has been as high as $75.91 and as low as $12.85 in the last 52 weeks. As of March 31, the stock was trading 79.12% below its 52-week high and 23.35% above its 52-week low.

With 1.62% of outstanding shares, Pioneer Investments is the company's largest guru shareholder, followed by the T Rowe Price Equity Income fund with 1.3% and Lee Ainslie (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.16%.

Nordstrom

Nordstrom Inc. (JWN, Financial) has a 4.5-star business predictability rank and, according to the DCF calculator, a 51.86% margin of safety at an average price of $16.33 per share.

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The fashion retailer has a $2.5 billion market cap and an enterprise value of $6.47 billion. Over the past five years, its revenue has increased 3% but its earnings per share have declined 1.1%.

The share price has tumbled 63% over the past 12 months. The stock is trading with a price-earnings ratio of 5.1 and a price-book ratio of 2.59. The share price has been as high as $48.87 and as low as $14.06 in the last 52 weeks. As of March 31, the stock was trading 66.58% below its 52-week high and 16.15% above its 52-week low.

With 0.8% of outstanding shares, Pioneer Investments is the company's most notable shareholder, followed by John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.36% and Ainslie with 0.15%.

AutoZone

AutoZone Inc. (AZO, Financial) has a business predictability rank of 3.5 out of five stars and, according to the DCF calculator, a 41.5% margin of safety at an average price of $852 per share.

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The aftermarket auto parts retailer has a market cap of $19 billion and an enterprise value of $27 billion. Over the past five years, its revenue has climbed 4.2% and its earnings per share have increased 13.6%.

Shares have declined 18% over the past 12 months. The stock is currently trading with a price-earnings ratio of 13.26. The share price has been as high as $1274.41 and as low as $684.91 in the last 52 weeks. As of March 31, the stock was trading 33.15% below its 52-week high and 24.3% above its 52-week low.

With 0.61% of outstanding shares, Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio)’ Renaissance Technologies is the company's largest guru shareholder, followed by Tweedy Browne (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.44% and Pioneer Investments with 0.08%.

Zumiez

Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ, Financial) has a business predictability rank of three stars and, according to the DCF calculator, a 60% margin of safety at an average price of $17.7 per share.

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The retailer of apparel and footwear has a $446 million market cap and an enterprise value of $550 million. Over the past five years, its revenue has grown 5.6% and its earnings per share have climbed 13.9%.

Shares have declined 30% over the past year. The stock is trading with a price-earnings ratio of 6.61. The price has been as high as $35.68 and as low as $13.13 in the last 52 weeks. As of March 31, the stock was trading 50.34% below its 52-week high and 34.96% above its 52-week low.

With 1.41% of outstanding shares, Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio) is the company's largest guru shareholder, followed by Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) with 0.88% and Ainslie with 0.74%.

Disclosure: I do not own any stocks mentioned.

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