Model Portfolio of Undervalued Predictable Companies Beats S&P500 by 10%; Thanks to World Acceptance Corp. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

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Dec 01, 2010
Buying quality companies at low valuations has been proved to be a long term winning value strategy. This is confirmed again this year with GuruFocus model portfolios. The model portfolio of Undervalued Predictable Companies gained more than 13%, beating S&P500 by more than 11%. Since incepted in Jan. 2009, the portfolio has gained 77%, while the market gained 30.7%. All numbers do not include dividends.


This is the performance chart of the model portfolio:


vari_chart_all.php?mp=smallcap&period=730






If you don’t know, the portfolio is selected based on these factors:


1. The companies have high rank of business predictability. For details, see: What worked in the marketfrom 1998-2008? Part I: Predictability Rank


2. On the day the portfolio was rebalanced (Jan. 2, 2010), the companies are sold at the largest discount related to their intrinsic values. The intrinsic values are calculated with GuruFocus DCF calculator.


3. The portfolio is rebalanced once a year.


Among the 25 stocks that are in the model portfolio, Landry's Restaurants Inc. was bought out at a large premium. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF, Financial) entered the portfolio in 2009, and has since gained more than 117%. World Acceptance Corp. (WRLD, Financial) has gained more than 122%.


4 other companies gained more than 50%. They are Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, gained 51%), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO, gained more than 60%), PrePaid Legal Services Inc. (PPD, gained 58%), Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc. (JOSA, gained 60%). All of these stocks are added into the portfolio in January of this year.


Only 5 companies are in loss among the 25 stocks. All of the losses are less than 10%.


Over the past 23 months, the portfolio has beat the S&P500 by more than 47%. Even in this year, the market gained about 8% with today’s huge gains, the portfolio beats the S&P500 by about 100%.


You can find the current list of undervalued predictable companies here.


Also check out the current list historical low P/S and P/B companies. These screens are created for our GuruFocus users to find good companies that are cheap relative to long term historical valuation. If you have followed these portfolios, you have better chances to outperform the market.


The holdings in the model portfolios and the screens are just a few of the many premium features we provided for GuruFocus Premium Members. If you are not a Premium Member, we invite you for a 7-day Free Trial.