Eli Lilly and Co.'s (LLY, Financial) anti-diabetic and obesity drug tirzepatide is the most valuable project in the pharmaceutical industry's pipeline, according to a report from EvaluatePharma.
Tirzepatide made the jump from sixth last year on the strength of Eli Lilly's confidence that the drug will show superiority to its own Trulicity in a phase 3 head-to-head trial. Evaluate assigned a net present value of $7.8 billion, forecasting sales of the drug to reach $2.2 billion by 2026.
With an net present value of $7.4 billion, Novartis's (NVS, Financial) inclisiran is the second-most valuable drug being developed. Novartis inherited the medication earlier this year when it acquired The Medicines Company. Approval of inclisiran is expected in the second half of the year. The drug will battle with Amgen Inc.'s (AMGN, Financial) Repatha for leadership in the market for cholesterol-lowering treatments by 2026, when the Novartis medication is forecast to rack up more than $2 billion in sales.
It's no surprise that members of Big Pharma hold six of the 10 spots on the list. Among mid-caps, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR, Financial) came in the highest, ranking fifth. The company is working with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALNY, Financial) on a drug to treat chronic hepatis B infection. Designated ALN-HBV02, the medication is in phase 2 testing and is forecasted to reach sales of $1.2 billion in 2026.
Top 10 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)
Source: EvaluatePharma Vision®, June 2020
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Another mid-cap that cracked the top 10 is Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. (IOVA, Financial). One of its two cancer drugs earned the Food and Drug Administration's Fast Track Approval for the treatment of advanced melanoma; it has a net present value of $5.2 billion and is expected to reach sales of $1.5 billion in 2026.
Sitting at number six is Biogen Inc's. (BIIB, Financial) Alzheimer's drug aducanumab, which has been on a rollercoaster ride during its lifetime. Aducanumab got new life after it was labeled all but dead last October, when Biogen and its partner Easai Co.Ltd. (TSE:4523, Financial) said they were stopping phase 3 testing because the drug simply wasn't working.
Shortly thereafter, Biogen reversed field and said that based on additional data that showed aducanumab was effective against Alzheimer's, it would file for FDA approval later this year. EvaluatePharma gave the drug a net present value of $5.3 billion, with sales to reach more than $1.6 billion in 2026. However, if aducanumab does prove effective, it could generate revenues well in excess of the forecast given that it would be the first new Alzheimer's disease treatment in more than 15 years.
Disclosure: The author has positions in Eli Lilly, Amgen and Bristol-Myers Squibb.
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