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United Natural Foods Stock Appears To Be Significantly Overvalued

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Mar 28, 2021
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The stock of United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $33.99 per share and the market cap of $1.9 billion, United Natural Foods stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for United Natural Foods is shown in the chart below.

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Because United Natural Foods is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 39.2% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 8.02% annually over the next three to five years.

Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.

Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. United Natural Foods has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.01, which which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Defensive. The overall financial strength of United Natural Foods is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of United Natural Foods is fair. This is the debt and cash of United Natural Foods over the past years:

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Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. United Natural Foods has been profitable 8 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $27.9 billion and earnings of $3.47 a share. Its operating margin is 1.80%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Defensive. Overall, the profitability of United Natural Foods is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of United Natural Foods over the past years:

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Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of United Natural Foods is 39.2%, which ranks better than 97% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Defensive. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -30%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Defensive.

Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, United Natural Foods's return on invested capital is 8.25, and its cost of capital is 5.84. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of United Natural Foods is shown below:

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In short, United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI, 30-year Financials) stock appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Defensive. To learn more about United Natural Foods stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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