The stock of Alcoa (NYSE:AA, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $32.081 per share and the market cap of $6 billion, Alcoa stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Alcoa is shown in the chart below.
Because Alcoa is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. Alcoa has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.63, which ranks worse than 76% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Alcoa's financial strength as 5 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Alcoa over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Alcoa has been profitable 2 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $9.3 billion and loss of $0.91 a share. Its operating margin is 4.61%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, the profitability of Alcoa is ranked 4 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Alcoa over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Alcoa's 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 66% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Alcoa's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -22%, which ranks worse than 81% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Alcoa's return on invested capital is -0.30, and its cost of capital is 14.95. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Alcoa is shown below:
In closing, the stock of Alcoa (NYSE:AA, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks worse than 81% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. To learn more about Alcoa stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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