WestRock Co Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Significantly Overvalued

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GF Value
Apr 06, 2021
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The stock of WestRock Co (NYSE:WRK, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $52.87 per share and the market cap of $13.9 billion, WestRock Co stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for WestRock Co is shown in the chart below.

WestRock Co GF Value Chart

Because WestRock Co is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 5.3% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 2.88% annually over the next three to five years.

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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. WestRock Co has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.03, which is in the bottom 10% of the companies in Packaging & Containers industry. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of WestRock Co at 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of WestRock Co is poor. This is the debt and cash of WestRock Co over the past years:

debt and cash

Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. WestRock Co has been profitable 8 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $17.6 billion and loss of $2.62 a share. Its operating margin of 6.47% in the middle range of the companies in Packaging & Containers industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks WestRock Co's profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of WestRock Co over the past years:

Revnue and Net Income

One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of WestRock Co is 5.3%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Packaging & Containers industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -15.1%, which ranks worse than 85% of the companies in Packaging & Containers industry.

Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, WestRock Co's return on invested capital is 5.40, and its cost of capital is 7.29. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of WestRock Co is shown below:

ROIC vs WACC

In conclusion, The stock of WestRock Co (NYSE:WRK, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 85% of the companies in Packaging & Containers industry. To learn more about WestRock Co stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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