MGM Resorts International Stock Gives Every Indication Of Being Significantly Overvalued

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GF Value
Apr 09, 2021
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The stock of MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $42.14 per share and the market cap of $20.9 billion, MGM Resorts International stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for MGM Resorts International is shown in the chart below.

MGM Resorts International GF Value Chart

Because MGM Resorts International is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which is estimated to grow 1.44% annually over the next three to five years.

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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. MGM Resorts International has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.24, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks MGM Resorts International's financial strength as 3 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of MGM Resorts International over the past years:

debt and cash

Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. MGM Resorts International has been profitable 5 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $5.2 billion and loss of $2.03 a share. Its operating margin is -40.37%, which ranks worse than 75% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. Overall, the profitability of MGM Resorts International is ranked 4 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of MGM Resorts International over the past years:

Revnue and Net Income

Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of MGM Resorts International is -17.6%, which ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -44.9%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry.

Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, MGM Resorts International's return on invested capital is -5.77, and its cost of capital is 10.69. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of MGM Resorts International is shown below:

ROIC vs WACC

In closing, the stock of MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. To learn more about MGM Resorts International stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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