The stock of Alico (NAS:ALCO, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $29.13 per share and the market cap of $218.9 million, Alico stock shows every sign of being fairly valued. GF Value for Alico is shown in the chart below.
Because Alico is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth, which is estimated to grow 8.89% annually over the next three to five years.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Alico has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.02, which which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. The overall financial strength of Alico is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Alico is poor. This is the debt and cash of Alico over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Alico has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $95.2 million and earnings of $3.57 a share. Its operating margin is 7.28%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Overall, the profitability of Alico is ranked 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Alico over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Alico is -7.6%, which ranks worse than 80% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 72.5%, which ranks better than 97% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Alico's return on invested capital is 1.33, and its cost of capital is 4.23. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Alico is shown below:
In conclusion, the stock of Alico (NAS:ALCO, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being fairly valued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 97% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. To learn more about Alico stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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