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ICF International Stock Is Believed To Be Modestly Overvalued

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GF Value
Apr 26, 2021
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The stock of ICF International (NAS:ICFI, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $93.42 per share and the market cap of $1.8 billion, ICF International stock is estimated to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for ICF International is shown in the chart below.

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Because ICF International is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 7.2% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 3.40% annually over the next three to five years.

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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. ICF International has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.03, which which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Business Services industry. The overall financial strength of ICF International is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of ICF International is fair. This is the debt and cash of ICF International over the past years:

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Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. ICF International has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $1.5 billion and earnings of $2.88 a share. Its operating margin of 5.91% in the middle range of the companies in Business Services industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks ICF International's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of ICF International over the past years:

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One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of ICF International is 7.2%, which ranks better than 66% of the companies in Business Services industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 3.4%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Business Services industry.

One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, ICF International's ROIC is 4.88 while its WACC came in at 5.33. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of ICF International is shown below:

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To conclude, the stock of ICF International (NAS:ICFI, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Business Services industry. To learn more about ICF International stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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