The stock of Sarepta Therapeutics (NAS:SRPT, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being possible value trap, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $74.02 per share and the market cap of $5.9 billion, Sarepta Therapeutics stock shows every sign of being possible value trap. GF Value for Sarepta Therapeutics is shown in the chart below.
The reason we think that Sarepta Therapeutics stock might be a value trap is because Sarepta Therapeutics has an Altman Z-score of 0.66, which indicates that the financial condition of the company is in the distressed zone and implies a higher risk of bankruptcy. An Altman Z-score of above 2.99 would be better, indicating safe financial conditions. To learn more about how the Z-score measures the financial risk of the company, please go here.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. Sarepta Therapeutics has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.81, which ranks worse than 76% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Sarepta Therapeutics's financial strength as 4 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Sarepta Therapeutics over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Sarepta Therapeutics has been profitable 0 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $540.1 million and loss of $7.07 a share. Its operating margin is -104.46%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Biotechnology industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Sarepta Therapeutics at 3 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Sarepta Therapeutics over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Sarepta Therapeutics is 38.1%, which ranks better than 83% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -116.3%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Biotechnology industry.
Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Sarepta Therapeutics's ROIC was -82.63, while its WACC came in at 10.72. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Sarepta Therapeutics is shown below:
To conclude, The stock of Sarepta Therapeutics (NAS:SRPT, 30-year Financials) is believed to be possible value trap. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. To learn more about Sarepta Therapeutics stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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