The stock of D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $103.87 per share and the market cap of $37.4 billion, D.R. Horton stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for D.R. Horton is shown in the chart below.
Because D.R. Horton is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 13.8% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 19.76% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. D.R. Horton has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.49, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. The overall financial strength of D.R. Horton is 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of D.R. Horton is fair. This is the debt and cash of D.R. Horton over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. D.R. Horton has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $24.2 billion and earnings of $8.63 a share. Its operating margin of 16.62% better than 83% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks D.R. Horton's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of D.R. Horton over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of D.R. Horton is 13.8%, which ranks better than 78% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 23.1%, which ranks better than 76% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry.
Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, D.R. Horton's ROIC was 20.42, while its WACC came in at 10.59.
In short, the stock of D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 76% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. To learn more about D.R. Horton stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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