The stock of Technology One (ASX:TNE, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of AUD 8.79 per share and the market cap of AUD 2.8 billion, Technology One stock appears to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Technology One is shown in the chart below.
Because Technology One is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 2.6% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 5.56% annually over the next three to five years.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Technology One has a cash-to-debt ratio of 4.28, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. The overall financial strength of Technology One is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Technology One is fair. This is the debt and cash of Technology One over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Technology One has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of AUD 298.3 million and earnings of AUD 0.196 a share. Its operating margin is 27.90%, which ranks better than 94% of the companies in Software industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Technology One at 9 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Technology One over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Technology One is 2.6%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 17.6%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Technology One's return on invested capital is 20.88, and its cost of capital is 4.17. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Technology One is shown below:
In conclusion, The stock of Technology One (ASX:TNE, 30-year Financials) appears to be modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Software industry. To learn more about Technology One stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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