The stock of Steel Dynamics (NAS:STLD, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $64.71 per share and the market cap of $13.7 billion, Steel Dynamics stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Steel Dynamics is shown in the chart below.
Because Steel Dynamics is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 4.7% over the past five years.
Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Steel Dynamics has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.40, which is in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Steel Dynamics at 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Steel Dynamics is fair. This is the debt and cash of Steel Dynamics over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Steel Dynamics has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $10.6 billion and earnings of $3.75 a share. Its operating margin is 11.23%, which ranks better than 83% of the companies in Steel industry. Overall, the profitability of Steel Dynamics is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Steel Dynamics over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Steel Dynamics is 4.7%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -2.2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry.
Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Steel Dynamics's ROIC was 14.79, while its WACC came in at 9.15. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Steel Dynamics is shown below:
In conclusion, the stock of Steel Dynamics (NAS:STLD, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. To learn more about Steel Dynamics stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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