The stock of Deere (NYSE:DE, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $356.64 per share and the market cap of $111.3 billion, Deere stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Deere is shown in the chart below.
Because Deere is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 7.3% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 5.21% annually over the next three to five years.
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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Deere has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.17, which is worse than 83% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Deere at 3 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Deere is poor. This is the debt and cash of Deere over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Deere has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $39.5 billion and earnings of $14.51 a share. Its operating margin of 15.68% better than 89% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Deere's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of Deere over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Deere is 7.3%, which ranks better than 68% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 10.9%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Deere's return on invested capital is 7.73, and its cost of capital is 5.40.
In summary, Deere (NYSE:DE, 30-year Financials) stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. To learn more about Deere stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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