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Ternium SA Stock Appears To Be Significantly Overvalued

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GF Value
Jun 06, 2021
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The stock of Ternium SA (NYSE:TX, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $37.12 per share and the market cap of $7.3 billion, Ternium SA stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Ternium SA is shown in the chart below.

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Because Ternium SA is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which is estimated to grow 0.12% annually over the next three to five years.

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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Ternium SA has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.74, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. The overall financial strength of Ternium SA is 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Ternium SA is fair. This is the debt and cash of Ternium SA over the past years:

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Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Ternium SA has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $9.7 billion and earnings of $7.06 a share. Its operating margin is 19.04%, which ranks better than 94% of the companies in Steel industry. Overall, the profitability of Ternium SA is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Ternium SA over the past years:

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Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Ternium SA's 3-year average revenue growth rate is in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. Ternium SA's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -1.9%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry.

Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Ternium SA's return on invested capital is 14.98, and its cost of capital is 6.65. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Ternium SA is shown below:

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In short, the stock of Ternium SA (NYSE:TX, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Steel industry. To learn more about Ternium SA stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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