Movin’ on up. That’s the expectation for Medtronic PLC (MDT, Financial), which is forecasted to boost its share of a worldwide medtech market that is pegged to grow 5% a year, reaching three-quarters of a trillion dollars by 2028.
Medtronic is already the biggest company in the industry, and it may be a more enticing investment as it gains a bigger part of the business.
The same cannot be said for Roche Holding AG (RHHBY, Financial), which is forecast to slide from fifth on the list to ninth due to plodding sales, reported Evaluate. Its overall medtech revenues are expanding, but not as fast as others.
Like many health care companies, Roche will be hurt by reduced demand for Covid-related products, with the Swiss company’s molecular diagnostics business falling from $5.3 billion in 2021 to under $4 billion next year.
Besides Medtronic, Siemens Aktiengesellschaft (SIEGY, Financial) and Stryker (SYK, Financial) are also climbing the ladder, to fourth and fifth, respectively. Expected to maintain their positions are Abbott Laboratories (ABT, Financial) in second and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Financial) in third.
When evaluating the companies on the list, investors should keep in mind that Medtronic’s and Stryker’s businesses are entirely in the field of medtech, while Roche, Abbott and Johnson & Johnson are diversified.
It is also important to consider that the list of the top companies is a snapshot of where they stand today and are likely to be six years from now. That could change with takeovers or other business moves down the line. For instance, Medtronic is supposedly considering shedding its slower-growing units. And as I reported on June 1, rumors have Johnson & Johnson making a bid for Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX, Financial).
The medtech industry has not gone unscathed in the past year. The First Trust Index Global Medical Devices ETF (MDEV) is off about 32%, while the iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (IHI, Financial) has declined 18% in the past 12 months. Among Medtech pure plays, shareholders of Kalamazoo, Michigan-based Stryker have been hit the hardest, with the company’s shares plunging 26%. Medtronic and Boston Scientific are down 16.7% and 16.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, Becton, Dickinson and Co. (BDX, Financial) is flat.
Largest medtech companies
| Company | WW Medtech Sales ($bn) 2021 | WW Medtech Sales ($bn) 2028 est. | CAGR | Market Share-2021 | Market Share-2028 est. |
| Medtronic | 31.7 | 44.1 | +5% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| Abbott | 29.9 | 39.9 | +4% | 5.5% | 5.2% |
| Johnson & Johnson | 27.1 | 36.2 | +4% | +5.0% | 4.8% |
| Siemens | 21.3 | 32.5 | +6% | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Stryker | 17.1 | 26.6 | +7% | 3.1% | 3.6% |
| Becton Dickinson | 18.9 | 23.1 | +3% | +3.5% | 3.1% |
| Essilor Luxottica (ESLOY, Financial) | 15.2 | 23.0 | +6% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Koninklijke Philips N.V. (PHG, Financial) | 16.3 | 21.9 | +4% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Roche | 19.4 | 21.2 | +1% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Boston Scientific | 11.9 | 18.5 | +7% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
Source: Evaluate Pharma
