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Should You Consider This Restaurant Stock for the Long Run?

August 21, 2014 | About:

I've been skeptical of Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) throughout the last year or something like that. The organization has given shareholders an incredible ride as shares have both risen and fallen based on how the current quarter's results were perceived. I would contend that Chipotle is most likely one of the easiest businesses to understand, yet the stock is a bit of a mystery. The organization shows strength in several areas; however, there are three major issues confronting this development story. Unless Chipotle's administration can evaluate these issues, the late recuperation in the stock could be short lived.

Productivity is the name of the diversion

While Chipotle has numerous competitors, there isn't a restaurant I can think of that is as productive. One of the enormous benefits to investors is Chipotle's strong margins and profoundly proficient business helps the organization produce significant free cash stream. In the event that you contrast the simplicity of Chipotle's operations with its peers, you can see why Chipotle's business can outperform them.

Panera Bread (PNRA) competes with Chipotle across the nation. Be that as it may, the organization's more extensive menu and bigger restaurant size makes it troublesome for the organization to be as productive as Chipotle. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) is a fast development story, yet as a sit-down restaurant, the organization will probably never match Chipotle for comfort or effectiveness.

The main rival that may match Chipotle for accommodation and fast service would be the Taco Bell chain of Yum! Brands (YUM). Taco Bell has even as of late added fresher selections designed with contend specifically with Chipotle. Tragically, Taco Bell has constructed a notoriety for shoddy nourishment with quality that is perceived as lower than Chipotle.

Indeed with the greater part of this rivalry, Chipotle's operating margin comes in second just to Yum! Brands. In the most recent quarter, Yum! Brands margin was 24.5% contrasted with the 17.9% margin by Chipotle. Then again, when you consider that Panera reported an operating margin of 14.17%, and Buffalo Wild Wings came in at just 7.88%, it's really clear that Chipotle is doing exceptionally well.

Take after the flow

Where Chipotle doesn't slack any of its peers is in the matter of producing free cash stream. One of the best ways to think about an organization's free cash stream generation to their peers is by taking a gander at free cash stream per dollar of sales. In principle, an organization that generates all the more free cash stream per dollar of sales should have the capacity to remunerate shareholders with better dividends, share buybacks and acquisitions.

Regarding free cash stream, I just take a gander at what I call center free cash stream. Center free cash stream is just net income plus devaluation minus capital expenditures. This helps to wipe out some of the bookkeeping changes that don't influence true cash. Using center free cash stream per dollar of sales, Chipotle produced $0.16 of free cash stream per dollar of sales in the last quarter. As you may expect, Yum! Brands comes in second with $0.15 of free cash stream per dollar of sales. While Panera and Buffalo Wild Wings have strong development, these companies created just $0.06 and $0.03 of free cash stream per dollar of sales respectively.

3 big problems

At the point when a stock is estimated for perfection, investors need to be exceptionally watchful. On the off chance that we take a gander at the Peg+y degree for Chipotle and its peers, we can stand up in comparison to each organization's yield and development rate to their anticipated P/E proportion. Think about the Peg+y degree as a reversed PEG proportion, the higher the number, the better. With Chipotle anticipated that will develop earnings by around 20%; however, with the stock exchanging in excess of 38 times anticipated earnings, the organization's Peg+y is just 0.52.

When we contrast this with Yum! Brands' Peg+y of 0.54, Chipotle is moderately more expensive. Considering that Yum! Brands is required to develop EPS by just 11%, but then sells in excess of 24 times anticipated earnings, the way that Chipotle is more expensive should be worrisome.

Wild Wings is expected to develop earnings by 18.18%, and the stock is cheaper than Chipotle at under 30 times earnings. With a Peg+y of 0.61, it seems Buffalo Wild Wings is a finer worth. The best of the pack may be Panera with a Peg+y of 0.71. The organization is relied upon to develop earnings by around 17.5%, yet the stock sells for under 25 times anticipated earnings.

The second issue confronting Chipotle is the organization's seemingly strong and practically identical sales in the current quarter didn't produce much in the method for earnings development. At the point when an organization turns in 5.5% same-store sales, I expect more than a 10.2% increase in EPS. Bison Wild Wings reported an about 4% same-store sales increase, and this transformed into a more than 40% increase in EPS. Panera transformed a 3.8% same-store sales increase into a 16% increase in EPS. Actually, just Yum! Brands performed worse than Chipotle on an EPS basis, yet the organization is struggling with tremendous problems in its Chinese operations.

The third issue confronting Chipotle is the organization's operating cash stream development is slowing down significantly. Previously 75%, Chipotle developed operating cash stream by 24.92%. Two quarters back, the organization developed operating cash stream by 20.27%, and this quarter the development rate dropped again to just 14.05%.


Ponder these numbers whenever you are enticed to pay in excess of 38 times anticipated earnings for Chipotle's stock. I know the organization's 5.5% same-store sales development was superior to expectations. Be that as it may, the organization's slowing cash stream development, powerless EPS development, and unpleasant quality are three problems that are difficult to disregard.

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