NeuroPace (NPCE, Financial) has had its price target raised by JPMorgan from $14 to $16, maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment follows the company's impressive first-quarter performance, surpassing market expectations in several areas. NeuroPace reported better-than-expected gross margin and revenue figures, while keeping operating expenses lower than projections. A key driver of this success was Project Care, contributing significantly alongside a record number of new prescribers and steady use in Level 4 centers. This marks another successful quarter for NeuroPace, reinforcing investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 7 analysts, the average target price for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) is $16.86 with a high estimate of $20.00 and a low estimate of $14.00. The average target implies an upside of 30.17% from the current price of $12.95. More detailed estimate data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 7 brokerage firms, NeuroPace Inc's (NPCE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) in one year is $9.28, suggesting a downside of 28.34% from the current price of $12.95. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Summary page.
NPCE Key Business Developments
Release Date: March 04, 2025
- Total Revenue (2024): $79.9 million, a 22% increase from $65.4 million in 2023.
- Q4 Revenue (2024): $21.5 million, a 19% increase from $18 million in Q4 2023.
- Gross Margin (Q4 2024): 75.4%, compared to 75.2% in Q4 2023.
- R&D Expense (Q4 2024): $6.1 million, up from $5.4 million in Q4 2023.
- SG&A Expense (Q4 2024): $13.8 million, up from $13.2 million in Q4 2023.
- Total Operating Expenses (Q4 2024): $19.8 million, a 7% increase from $18.6 million in Q4 2023.
- Net Loss (Q4 2024): $5.3 million, compared to $6.2 million in Q4 2023.
- Cash and Short-term Investments (Dec 31, 2024): $52.8 million.
- Pro Forma Cash and Short-term Investments (Feb 28, 2025): Approximately $68.6 million.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $92 to $96 million, a projected increase of 15% to 20% over 2024.
- 2025 Gross Margin Guidance: 73% to 75%.
- 2025 Operating Expenses Guidance: $92 to $95 million, including $11 million in stock-based compensation.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) reported a 22% increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching $79.9 million, driven by sales of the RNS system and Dixie Medical SEEG products.
- The company achieved record quarterly revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 19% growth compared to the same period in 2023.
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) successfully executed its three-part strategy, focusing on expanding adoption and utilization within Level 4 comprehensive epilepsy centers, expanding service delivery with Project Care, and expanding indications for the RNS system.
- The company reported positive three-year safety and effectiveness data from its ongoing five-year prospective post-approval study of the RNS system, showing unmatched seizure control.
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) completed a public offering, strengthening its balance sheet with net proceeds of approximately $69.8 million, which is expected to support planned operations until achieving cash flow break-even.
Negative Points
- Despite revenue growth, NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) reported a net loss of $5.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to a $6.2 million loss in the same period of 2023.
- The company faces material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements, as highlighted in their earnings call.
- Operating expenses increased by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by higher R&D and SG&A expenses.
- The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be in the range of 73% to 75%, with potential variability due to fluctuations in the proportion of Dixie Medical revenue.
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) needs to work with payers to expand coverage criteria for new indications, which could pose challenges in reimbursement for generalized and pediatric epilepsy markets.
