NeuroPace (NPCE, Financial) has unveiled the one-year preliminary results from its two-year NAUTILUS study, which assesses the RNS System for treating drug-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy. The research achieved its initial 12-week post-implant safety objective, indicating a low incidence of significant adverse events associated with the device and implantation, aligning with the RNS System's recognized safety standards.
However, the study did not show statistical significance for the primary effectiveness goal in the overall participant group. This objective aimed to demonstrate a longer duration before a second generalized tonic-clonic seizure in the active stimulation cohort compared to the sham group. Notably, the data did reveal a clinically significant and statistically substantial response within a subgroup of patients who had a lower initial frequency of generalized tonic-clonic seizures, comprising the majority of trial participants. Although the study was not designed to show subgroup effectiveness, the findings indicate that the RNS System may offer a meaningful therapeutic benefit for a significant portion of the patient population.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 6 analysts, the average target price for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) is $17.83 with a high estimate of $20.00 and a low estimate of $17.00. The average target implies an upside of 0.87% from the current price of $17.68. More detailed estimate data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 7 brokerage firms, NeuroPace Inc's (NPCE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) in one year is $8.89, suggesting a downside of 49.72% from the current price of $17.68. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Summary page.
NPCE Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 13, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) reported a strong first quarter with total revenue of $22.5 million, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous year.
- The company's RNS sales grew by 26%, or 29% when excluding the impact of Nautilus study implants in Q1 2024.
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) completed a $75 million follow-on equity financing, enhancing its financial position.
- The company presented compelling three-year effectiveness data from its post-approval study, showing an 82% median reduction in seizures for adults treated with brain-responsive stimulation.
- Gross margin improved to 77% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 73.6% in the same period of 2024, driven by improved manufacturing efficiency and higher production volumes.
Negative Points
- Research and development expenses increased to $7.4 million in Q1 2025 from $5.8 million in the same period of 2024, due to increased personnel and program expenses.
- The company announced the termination of its distribution of SEEG products, which could impact future revenue streams.
- Despite revenue growth, NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) reported a net loss of $6.6 million for the first quarter of 2025.
- Operating expenses rose to $22.5 million in Q1 2025, representing an 8% increase compared to the prior year.
- The company anticipates potential fluctuations in gross margin due to the proportion of SEEG revenue and other factors, which could impact financial stability.
