NeuroPace (NPCE, Financial) has announced preliminary findings from its NAUTILUS study, evaluating the safety and efficacy of its RNS system for patients with idiopathic generalized epilepsy. The data revealed that while the primary safety goal was achieved after a year, the primary efficacy goal did not reach statistical significance. This news comes as a setback, though some optimism remains following a subsequent conference call where management expressed a positive outlook for addressing drug-resistant epilepsy. Despite the mixed results, analysts maintain an Outperform rating on NPCE, suggesting confidence in the company's long-term potential.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 6 analysts, the average target price for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) is $17.83 with a high estimate of $20.00 and a low estimate of $17.00. The average target implies an upside of 54.80% from the current price of $11.52. More detailed estimate data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 7 brokerage firms, NeuroPace Inc's (NPCE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) in one year is $8.89, suggesting a downside of 22.83% from the current price of $11.52. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) Summary page.
NPCE Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 13, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE, Financial) reported a strong first quarter with total revenue of $22.5 million, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous year.
- The company's RNS sales grew by 26%, or 29% when excluding the impact of Nautilus study implants in Q1 2024.
- NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) completed a $75 million follow-on equity financing, enhancing its financial position.
- The company presented compelling three-year effectiveness data from its post-approval study, showing an 82% median reduction in seizures for adults treated with brain-responsive stimulation.
- Gross margin improved to 77% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 73.6% in the same period of 2024, driven by improved manufacturing efficiency and higher production volumes.
Negative Points
- Research and development expenses increased to $7.4 million in Q1 2025 from $5.8 million in the same period of 2024, due to increased personnel and program expenses.
- The company announced the termination of its distribution of SEEG products, which could impact future revenue streams.
- Despite revenue growth, NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) reported a net loss of $6.6 million for the first quarter of 2025.
- Operating expenses rose to $22.5 million in Q1 2025, representing an 8% increase compared to the prior year.
- The company anticipates potential fluctuations in gross margin due to the proportion of SEEG revenue and other factors, which could impact financial stability.
