The Mosaic Company (MOS, Financial) has adjusted its forecasts for the second quarter and full year 2025. The company has increased its guidance for diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, now projecting prices to fall between $650 and $670 per tonne, up from the prior estimate of $635-$655 per tonne. This adjustment reflects robust market conditions. Meanwhile, potash prices, specifically mine-gate MOP prices, are anticipated to remain steady at $230 to $250 per tonne.
In terms of sales volumes, Mosaic lowered its expectations for phosphate, predicting 1.5-1.6 million tonnes for the second quarter of 2025, down from the previous range of 1.7-1.9 million tonnes. The annual production forecast for 2025 has also been adjusted downward to 7.0-7.3 million tonnes. However, potash sales volume guidance remains unchanged at 2.3-2.5 million tonnes for the second quarter, with full-year production steady at 9.0-9.4 million tonnes.
Mosaic Fertilizantes' outlook is positive, with the second quarter expected to outperform the first due to rising prices, better distribution margins, improved operational efficiencies, and favorable foreign exchange impacts. Despite these updates, Mosaic shares have declined by 6% in premarket trading.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 18 analysts, the average target price for The Mosaic Co (MOS, Financial) is $38.25 with a high estimate of $46.00 and a low estimate of $31.00. The average target implies an upside of 5.09% from the current price of $36.40. More detailed estimate data can be found on the The Mosaic Co (MOS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, The Mosaic Co's (MOS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for The Mosaic Co (MOS, Financial) in one year is $30.83, suggesting a downside of 15.3% from the current price of $36.4. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the The Mosaic Co (MOS) Summary page.
MOS Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 07, 2025
- Net Income: $238 million for the first quarter of 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $544 million for the first quarter of 2025.
- Phosphate Realized Prices: $623 per tonne, exceeding guidance ranges.
- Potash Realized Prices: $223 per tonne, exceeding guidance ranges.
- Phosphate Production: 1.4 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025.
- Phosphate Cash Conversion Cost: $134 per tonne, with a target to reduce to $95-$100 per tonne by year-end.
- Potash Production Cash Cost: $78 per tonne, with a target to reduce to $64-$69 per tonne.
- Mosaic Fertilizantes Adjusted EBITDA: $122 million in the first quarter, with expectations to exceed $150 million in the second quarter.
- Free Cash Flow Generation: Constrained by typical working capital seasonality in the first quarter.
- Capital Expenditure (CapEx): Expected to be $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion for the year.
- SG&A Cost Savings: Achieved $90 million of the $150 million annual cost savings target.
- Mosaic Biosciences Revenue: More than doubled over the prior year, on track to double for the full year.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Fertilizer fundamentals are competitive with rising prices, and strong demand is observed in key growing regions globally.
- Mosaic Co is making progress in normalizing phosphate production and operating costs, aiming for stronger results in 2025 and beyond.
- The company's market access, particularly in Brazil, is enabling growth and benefiting from strong markets.
- Mosaic Biosciences is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue more than doubling over the prior year.
- The company is actively shedding noncore assets and reallocating capital to enhance shareholder returns.
Negative Points
- Global trade conflicts and geopolitical forces are creating uncertainties, particularly affecting the US agriculture sector.
- Phosphate production faced substantial downtime due to planned turnarounds and reliability improvements, impacting costs.
- Potash production costs increased due to weather-related curtailments and maintenance work, affecting profitability.
- Free cash flow generation was constrained by typical working capital seasonality in the first quarter.
- The company faces potential demand headwinds in the second half of the year due to challenging fertilizer affordability.
