KeyBanc has revised its price target for Winnebago (WGO, Financial), lowering it from $37 to $34, while retaining an Overweight rating on the stock. This adjustment follows Winnebago's recent quarterly report, which showed minor beats in both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, aligning with previously announced guidance from early June. Despite these results and a reduction in guidance, the changes were largely anticipated by the market. The firm expresses confidence in Winnebago’s strategic position, citing the company's historical resilience and disciplined approach to shipments as key strengths amidst ongoing stock fluctuations.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO, Financial) is $40.45 with a high estimate of $60.00 and a low estimate of $34.00. The average target implies an upside of 43.25% from the current price of $28.24. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 13 brokerage firms, Winnebago Industries Inc's (WGO, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO, Financial) in one year is $51.80, suggesting a upside of 83.43% from the current price of $28.24. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) Summary page.
WGO Key Business Developments
Release Date: June 25, 2025
- Net Revenues: Declined modestly due to product mix, with lower ASP Grand Design Transcend series travel trailers outpacing broader portfolio.
- Gross Margin: Declined 130 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to higher warranty experience and product mix.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Decreased 140 basis points year-over-year, mainly due to lower gross margin.
- Towable RV Segment Unit Volume: Increased 2.5% due to new Grand Design travel trailers.
- Motorhome RV Segment Net Revenues: Decreased due to lower unit volume, partially offset by product mix.
- Motorhome RV Segment Volume: Declined 14.8% year-over-year.
- Marine Segment Net Revenues: Increased 15% driven by higher unit volume and targeted price increases.
- Marine Segment Unit Volume: Increased over 11% year-over-year.
- Free Cash Flow: Negative $81.7 million for the nine-month period.
- Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: 4.8 times at the end of Q3.
- Shareholder Returns: Nearly $80 million returned, including $50 million in share repurchases and $29.3 million in dividends.
- Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance: Reduced to a range of $1.20 to $1.70 per diluted share.
- Fiscal 2025 Revenue Forecast: Adjusted to a range of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO, Financial) has introduced new products, such as the Newmar Freedom Aire and the Grand Design VT Class B van, which are expected to drive future growth.
- The company has been recognized by Newsweek as one of America's most trustworthy companies for the second consecutive year, highlighting its strong corporate responsibility initiatives.
- Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) has taken decisive steps to lower field inventory and improve working capital, aligning production schedules with market demand.
- The Marine segment showed a 15% increase in net revenues, driven by higher unit volume and targeted price increases.
- Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) continues to gain market share in several core product segments, including Class A gas and diesel motorhomes.
Negative Points
- The RV market is experiencing a decline, with North America RV retail sales dropping by 8.2% in April, marking the third consecutive month of decline.
- Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) has lowered its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance due to market pressures and ongoing business transitions.
- The company is facing challenges in the Winnebago-branded motorhome business, with a significant decrease in adjusted EBITDA margin due to higher discounts and operational inefficiencies.
- Tariff-related costs pose a potential risk to fiscal 2026 earnings, with an estimated impact of $0.50 to $0.75 per diluted share.
- Free cash flow was negative $81.7 million for the nine-month period, driven by operational inefficiencies and excess inventory in the Winnebago-branded motorhome segment.
