Apple (AAPL, Financial) shares surged over 2.5% after Jefferies upgraded its rating from "underperform" to "hold," citing potential upside in third-quarter iPhone sales. Analysts led by Edison Lee highlighted data from Counterpoint Research showing a 15% year-over-year increase in global iPhone shipments for April and May, marking the strongest growth since 2021.
The analysts noted that a 12.5% growth rate in the March quarter was partly due to early demand release from price cuts in China. Lee estimated a 19% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales in China during the June promotional season, contributing to an overall 10% growth for the quarter. Apple appears committed to defending its market share through targeted discounts and government subsidies.
As a result, Jefferies raised its third-quarter iPhone sales forecast to 49.4 million units, up from a 1% growth prediction to 9%. However, the firm lowered its September quarter sales forecast by 11% to 46.3 million units, citing a lack of new features and disruptive AI applications.
Apple's third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2025, covering April 1 to June 30, are expected around July 31. Analysts anticipate revenue of $88.67 billion and earnings per share of $1.42. Investors are closely watching whether iPhone sales can exceed expectations to sustain stock momentum.
