Standard Chartered expects bitcoin (BTC-USD, Financial) to continue its 2025 rally, forecasting a climb to $135,000 by the end of Q3 and $200,000 by year-end. The bank's revised target reflects what it calls “unusually strong” inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $112,000 in Q2—below the bank's earlier $120,000 forecast but still well above levels seen earlier this year. According to the report, U.S.-listed spot ETFs brought in $12.4 billion last quarter, representing 120,000 BTC. Meanwhile, treasury buyers added another 125,000 BTC to their reserves.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the combined 245,000 BTC bought in Q2 could be surpassed in Q3. He pointed to continued strength in ETF inflows, which now total nearly $49 billion since launch in January 2024.
ETF demand for bitcoin is outpacing traditional hedges. Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q2 exceeded the $6.9 billion that flowed into gold ETFs—a sign, Kendrick said, of investor rotation rather than geopolitical hedging.
Regulatory developments could offer another boost. Standard Chartered flagged two potential catalysts: passage of a U.S. stablecoin bill and a possible announcement from President Trump replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell before October.
Kendrick believes these drivers—plus the ETF momentum—could send bitcoin to fresh highs. While halving cycles in the past have triggered post-peak corrections, he says strong institutional buying this time may mute any downside.
