Analysts forecast ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) will deliver €5.25 ($6.13) EPS on €7.55 billion ($8.82 billion) in revenue when it reports before the European open on Wednesday, July 16. While the semiconductor-equipment giant's stock is up 2% year to date in its home market, its U.S.-listed ADRs have surged 15%, with the difference largely driven by currency fluctuations.
Investors will focus on the health of the order book because wafer-fab equipment bookings typically lead actual chip-plant spending by several quarters. ASML logged €3.9 billion ($4.56 billion) in Q1 net bookings and guided Q2 sales of €7.2 to €7.7 billion ($8.4 to $9.0 billion) with a 50% to 53% gross margin band. A rebound in orders from heavyweights such as TSMC and Intel would signal that AI-related expansions are gathering pace. A another soft print could force analysts to trim second-half models. Management has indicated that most new U.S. tariff costs would be passed to American customers, so any hint of resistance could pressure margins. Lastly, commentary on China, expected to generate more than 25% of 2025 sales, will help investors gauge how export curbs are filtering through to demand.
