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PJ Pahygiannis
PJ Pahygiannis
Articles (149) 

Low Payout Ratios, High Retained Earnings Make These Dividend Stocks Attractive

Examining the safety of several popular stocks' dividend yields

November 17, 2015 | About:

Ambev S.A. (NYSE:ABEV) has shareholders' equity of $1.01 a share and net earnings of 28 cents a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Ambev that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays 28 cents. This means that each share owned is yielding a 28.7% return on shareholders' equity ($0.28 / $1.01 = 28.7%), of which 86% is retained by the company and 14% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 86% of the 28.7%, or 24.68%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $1.01 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $1.01 by 24.68%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $1.26.

With the stock currently trading at $5 a share, your initial rate of return would be 5.6%. To project what Ambev will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $1.26 by 28.7% and get projected per share earnings of 36 cents. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 21.02 times our projected per share earnings of $0.36, then each share should be worth $7.56 in 2016.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) has shareholders' equity of $5.56 a share and net earnings of $1.77 a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Kroger that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays $1.77. This means that each share owned is yielding a 31.8% return on shareholders' equity ($1.77 / $5.56 = 31.8%), of which 76% is retained by the company and 24% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 76% of the 31.8%, or 24.17%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $5.56 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $5.56 by 24.17%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $6.90.

With the stock currently trading at $36.63 a share, your initial rate of return would be 4.8%. To project what Kroger will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $6.90 by 31.8% and get projected per share earnings of $2.19. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 15.69 times our projected per share earnings of $2.19, then each share should be worth $34.36 in 2016.

Best Buy Co. (NYSE:BBY) has shareholders' equity of $14.49 a share and net earnings of $3.57 a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Best Buy that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays $3.57. This means that each share owned is yielding a 24.6% return on shareholders' equity ($3.57 / $14.49 = 24.6%), of which 74% is retained by the company and 26% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 74% of the 24.6%, or 18.20%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $14.49 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $14.49 by 18.20%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $17.12.

With the stock currently trading at $30.61 a share, your initial rate of return would be 11.6%. To project what Best Buy will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $17.12 by 24.6% and get projected per share earnings of $4.21. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last ten years, 14.79 times our projected per share earnings of $4.21, then each share should be worth $62.26 in 2016.

HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) has shareholders' equity of $15.02 a share and net earnings of $2.79 a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of HP that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays $2.79. This means that each share owned is yielding a 18.6% return on shareholders' equity ($2.79 / $15.02 = 18.6%), of which 82% is retained by the company and 18% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 82% of the 18.6%, or 15.25%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $15.02 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $15.02 by 15.25%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $17.31.

With the stock currently trading at $13.38 a share, your initial rate of return would be 20.85%. To project what HP will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $17.31 by 18.6% and get projected per share earnings of $3.22. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 6.30 times our projected per share earnings of $3.22, then each share should be worth $20.28 in 2016.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) has shareholders' equity of $25.35 a share and net earnings of $5.10 a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Walmart that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays $5.10. This means that each share owned is yielding a 20.10% return on shareholders' equity ($5.10 / $25.35 = 20.10%), of which 61% is retained by the company and 39% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 61% of the 20.10%, or 12.26%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $25.35 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $25.35 by 12.26%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $28.45.

With the stock currently trading at $59.71 a share, your initial rate of return would be 8.5%. To project what Walmart will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $28.45 by 20.10% and get projected per share earnings of $5.72. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 15.32 times our projected per share earnings of $5.72, then each share should be worth $87.63 in 2016.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE:HLT) has shareholders' equity of $4.81 a share and net earnings of 68 cents a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Hilton that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays 68 cents. This means that each share owned is yielding a 14.10% return on shareholders' equity ($0.68 / $4.81 = 14.10%), of which 59% is retained by the company and 41% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 59% of the 14.10%, or 8.32%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $4.81 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $4.81 by 8.32%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $5.21.

With the stock currently trading at $23.89 a share, your initial rate of return would be 2.8%. To project what Hilton will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $5.21 by 14.10% and get projected per share earnings of 73 cents. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 41.62 times our projected per share earnings of 73 cents, then each share should be worth $30.38 in 2016.

Xerox Corporation (NYSE:XRX) has shareholders' equity of $10.53 a share and net earnings of 96 cents a share. From a shareholder's position, each share of Xerox that you own has a certificate attached to it that pays 96 cents. This means that each share owned is yielding a 9.10% return on shareholders' equity ($0.96 / $10.53 = 9.1%), of which 71% is retained by the company and 29% is paid out as dividends to shareholders. Take 71% of the 9.10%, or 6.46%, and add it to the equity per share base each year. With $10.53 in shareholders' equity per share currently, we can increase the $10.53 by 6.46%, giving us a projected per share equity value for 2016 of $11.21.

With the stock currently trading at $10.18 a share, your initial rate of return would be 9.40%. To project what Xerox will earn per share in 2016, we multiply $11.21 by 9.10% and get projected per share earnings of $1.02. If the company is trading at its median P/E ratio over the last 10 years, 14.83 times our projected per share earnings of $1.02, then each share should be worth $15.13 in 2016.


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