Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE:BKD) is the largest and best in class owner-operator of senior housing in the US.3 Brookdale also owns 399 high quality senior housing properties. We believe that these properties represent approximately 50% of the company’s asset value that the market is not currently recognizing. In addition to being a best-in-class operator with valuable hard assets, Brookdale has attractive long-term tailwinds from an ageing Baby Boomer population. Finally, Brookdale is well-financed. It has approximately $6.8 billion of mortgage debt and capital leases on an estimated asset value of more than $20 billion, making it very well-capitalized.
Brookdale ran into two short term problems that have resulted in negative earnings revisions and a share price decline over the past six months. Brookdale merged with competitor Emeritus last year and integration issues have led to lower-than-expected occupancy, and high level executive turnover created uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to execute.
Despite these short term issues, the investment case remains unchanged. At the end of our quarter, Brookdale traded at $22.20 per share. From this depressed price, we believe there is tremendous upside, particularly if the company manages to monetize its real estate. Without any operating improvements, we believe Brookdale’s net asset value to be near $38 per share. Including synergies from the Emeritus merger and likely improvements in occupancy and average rents, Brookdale’s value could be well in excess of this estimate.
From Third Avenue Management (Trades, Portfolio)'s Value Fund fourth quarter 2015 portfolio manager commentary.
