At the current price, Valeant (NYSE:VRX) stock is not a mouth-watering bargain at less than 3 times earnings or less than 2 times free cash flow because it carries around $30 billion of debt, but it is still relatively cheap. If Valeant can reduce its debt by as much as $8 billion as stated by management, through a combination of organic earnings and the sale of non-core assets, it will remove the feeling that the company is standing on the edge of a precipice.
A large debt means that any small misstep or missed guidance could result in bankruptcy. If the company’s debt is reduced, it will then be valued based on the free cash flow generated from operations. In addition, Valeant is also undergoing criminal investigations over its ties with Philidor. However, we believe the impact of these litigations is likely to be rather limited given that it pertains to only 5% of its revenue. Although, we do emphasize that it is difficult to accurately predict the outcome or impact of any lawsuit.
In conclusion:
- Valeant could return to trading at the normal multiples if its debt is significantly reduced and the impact and costs of litigations are determined.
- The company appears to have good cash flow characteristics, resulting from solid portfolio pipelines.
- While we believe Valeant is cheap, the undervaluation is not as deep as it first appears. One must look at return on a fully capitalized basis to get the full picture. Based on the information we now have, the initial price we paid was on the high side but we believe that the intrinsic value is higher than the average cost we have paid for Valeant.
From Francis Chou (Trades, Portfolio)'s Opportunity Fund fourth quarter 2016 shareholder letter.
