CenturyLink (CTL, Financial) (formerly Level 3) (-10%,-1.12%, -5%,-0.52%), the global fiber and integrated communications network company, was the Fund’s largest holding and declined during the year and fourth quarter, even though the stock rallied over 22% from its November low after CTL’s purchase of Level 3 closed. Throughout, our investment case grew more compelling. The merger of Level 3’s fiber network with Qwest’s assets that CTL had previously acquired created a uniquely competitive global fiber network that has particular strengths in the higher margin, growing Enterprise segment. Level 3’s CEO Jeff Storey becoming President and COO and eventual CEO of CTL and Sunit Patel maintaining the CFO position in the combined company were critical to our support for the deal. Their leadership makes us confident that CTL management will be able to drive mid single-digit Enterprise revenue growth at high contribution margins, cut costs substantially and deliver the projected $1 billion in deal synergies, much of which will be created by moving traffic onto the company’s combined network from third parties. Despite CTL’s stronger positioning, the stock price fell, in part because Level 3 customers delayed new purchases until it was clear who would lead the combined company. But, the primary price pressure was due to fears that CTL would not be able to sustain its double-digit dividend yield (a valid concern without the Level 3 acquisition). This worry heightened after the stocks of two mostly unrelated and massively overleveraged regional operators which were more closely aligned with CTL’s legacy landline business than the fiber business, saw their stocks collapse after dividend cuts. Storey and Patel confirm that the dividend is safe based on the combined EBITDA of the Level 3 and CTL fiber networks, the synergies from the deal, and the use of Level 3’s NOLs to reduce taxes. By our estimates, once the synergies are realized, the company should deliver over $3/ share of Free Cash Flow (FCF) after capital expenditures (capex), which will amply cover the $2.16 dividend. We see material additional upside not built into our appraisal based on Patel’s record of cost cutting after mergers and the multiple players that would benefit from owning this network. When the stock price dramatically disregarded the positive fundamentals and our assessment of CTL’s intrinsic value, we bought more, including in the fourth quarter. Management and the board appeared to share our enthusiasm as demonstrated by significant December insider purchases as soon as the blackout period that prohibited purchases was lifted.
From Longleaf Partners' 2017 shareholder letter.
