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PriceSmart in Solid Uptrend - Still Looks Strong

September 15, 2009 | About:


Strong Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis confirms that a strong uptrend is in place and that the market remains positive longer term. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, PSMT scored +100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10 Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average

+15 New 3 Day High on Monday

+20 Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average

+25 New 3 Week High, Week Ending September 19th

+30 New 3 Month High in September

+100 Total Score

Rating: 2.0/5 (4 votes)


Evan - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
Wow Doc, I didn't know you were a closet Charter.
Buffetteer17 premium member - 8 years ago
The Sornette bubble detection formula indicates that the market (in particular the S&P 500) is currently in a bubble state and that the most likely ending date is between 9/16/09 and 9/21/09 and a correction of 15-20% is due. The Sornette formula fits the last 6 months of S&P 500 closing prices with an R-squared coefficient of 92% (moderately strong correlation). According to Sornette, the market may not necessarily correct sharply; there is also a chance that the bubble will slowly deflate. The Sornette bubble detection formula does not say what happens after the correction. The market may well resume its upward climb. The pundits on TV seem to be mostly of the opinion that a correction now would be healthy for the market. See Bubble Detection thread in this forum for more details.

While I find the Sornette formula interesting, I have made no portfolio moves to bet for or against this prediction, except to buy a few (0.05% of my portfolio) OTM put options as a lottery ticket. I want to see the formula make several correct predictions before giving it much trust. It has already failed once by predicting a correction on 9/1/09. I remain mostly hedged with long puts and short calls against the S&P index, and 100% invested in selected stocks.
Bearuo - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
For S&P 3/24/2009 to 9/14/2009, with R^2=0.9322

M. 0.283

W. 10.01

Tc. 0.852 - Nov 7, 2009

phi. 1.492

A. 7.4226

B. -0.784

C. 0.03893

Nosc is still only 2.27 and hazard rate is still not exclusively positive. Patience ...

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GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with Pricesmart Inc $PSMT.
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