John Rogers

Last Update: 09-10-2018

Number of Stocks: 160
Number of New Stocks: 3

Total Value: $8,912 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 4%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Rogers' s Profile & Performance

Profile

John Rogers is the Founder of Ariel Investment, LLC, which he started in 1983. As of 2008, the firm had over $15.5 billion in assets under management. John manages Ariel's small and mid-cap institutional portfolios as well as the Ariel Fund (ARGFX) and Ariel Appreciation Fund (CAAPX). He is also a long-term Forbes columnist writing a column called "Patient Investor."

Web Page:http://www.arielmutualfunds.com/

Investing Philosophy

Rogers has concentrated his investment selection on small and medium-sized companies whose share prices are undervalued. He believes that patience, independent thinking, and a long-term outlook are essential to achieving good returns. His fund seeks to purchase companies whose prospects include high barriers to entry, sustainable competitive advantages, and predictable fundamentals that allow for double digit cash earnings growth. Rogers purchases companies when they are trading at a low valuation relative to potential earnings (p/e less than 13x forward cash earnings) and/or a low valuation relative to intrinsic worth (40% discount to private market value - PMV).

Total Holding History

Performance of Ariel Fund

YearReturn (%)S&P500 (%)Excess Gain (%)
201715.8821.71-5.8
201615.5611.993.6
2015-4.11.24-5.3
3-Year Cumulative28.4 (8.7%/year)38 (11.3%/year)-9.6 (-2.6%/year)
201410.9513.47-2.5
201344.6832.312.4
5-Year Cumulative106.1 (15.6%/year)107.2 (15.7%/year)-1.1 (-0.1%/year)
201220.3215.994.3
2011-11.341.9-13.2
201025.9715.0510.9
200963.4226.3537.1
2008-48.25-36.79-11.5
10-Year Cumulative134.3 (8.9%/year)125 (8.4%/year)9.3 (0.5%/year)
2007-1.75.14-6.8
200610.3515.85-5.5
20050.924.83-3.9
200421.9710.711.3
200328.0428.19-0.1
15-Year Cumulative300.5 (9.7%/year)307.7 (9.8%/year)-7.2 (-0.1%/year)
2002-5.18-21.5816.4
200114.21-11.7626.0
200028.77-9.7538.5
1999-5.7620.4-26.2
19989.8928.7-18.8
20-Year Cumulative478.4 (9.2%/year)294.5 (7.1%/year)183.9 (2.1%/year)
199736.4433.473.0
199623.5122.491.0
199518.5238.04-19.5
1994-4.220.4-4.6
19938.7310.08-1.4
25-Year Cumulative1103.1 (10.5%/year)883.9 (9.6%/year)219.2 (0.9%/year)
199211.737.624.1
199132.7230.472.3
1990-16.08-3.1-13.0
198925.1131.69-6.6
198839.9216.6123.3
30-Year Cumulative2520.8 (11.5%/year)1955.8 (10.6%/year)565 (0.9%/year)
198711.45.16.3

Top Ranked Articles

John Rogers’ Ariel Fund Boosts US Silica Position 35% Guru real-time pick highlight and new real-time picks page announcement
John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), manager of the Ariel Fund, disclosed on Monday that the fund increased its U.S. Silica Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SLCA) position 35.16% on Aug. 31. Read more...
Boost in Sales of F-35 Fighter Enhance Quarterly Earnings Lockheed Martin is building the costliest weapons program in US history
A boost in production and sales of the costliest U.S. weapons system, the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet, enhanced fourth-quarter earnings for Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT). Read more...
John Rogers Comments on Bristow Group Guru stock highlight
Looking broadly at our portfolio, helicopter operator Bristow Group, Inc. (NYSE:BRS) was the best performing name, surging +44.06% during the quarter amidst a better than expected earnings report and increased fiscal 2018 guidance. Notable announcements included cost recoveries, capex deferrals, the sale of Bristow Academy and the issuance of a convertible senior notes offering. Management retains a cautious outlook as the offshore downturn has continued in spite of stabilizing oil prices. Overall, we believe the shares are undervalued and with the liquidity overhang satisfied, the company can now shift its focus to operating the business for long term success. Read more...
John Rogers Comments on TEGNA Guru stock highlight
Local network broadcast TV provider TEGNA, Inc. (NYSE:TGNA) also weighed on quarterly performance, trading down -18.66% as fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 results missed top line expectations due to the absence of cyclical political revenue contributions as well as the digital businesses cars.com and CareerBuilder. TEGNA is now a pure-play TV station operator and largest owner of top four affiliates in the top 25 markets. We believe the company is well positioned for subscription revenue growth as cable, satellite, telecom operators and virtual multichannel providers pay for the right to carry TGNA’s programming. We think network TV remains the most effective medium that has mass reach and the ability to build a brand campaign for national and local advertisers. TGNA is also poised to deliver strong free cash flow in 2018, due to growing retransmission revenues, Super Bowl LII on NBC, XXIII Olympic Winter Games on NBC and political advertising. Read more...
Ariel Investments on the Future of Health Care Recommends 10 health care names
Ariel Investments, run by John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), just published an interesting monthly commentary I'll shortly discuss. Very quickly -- who is John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio)? GuruFocus profiles Rogers as follows: Read more...
» More John Rogers Articles

Commentaries and Stories

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5 High-Yielding Stocks These companies posted poor 12-month performances Jim Simons, John Rogers, Chuck Royce, David Rolfe - 5 High-Yielding Stocks
According to the GuruFocus All-In-One Screener, the following stocks have high dividend yields but performed poorly over the last 12 months. More...

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John Rogers’ Ariel Fund Boosts US Silica Position 35% Guru real-time pick highlight and new real-time picks page announcement John Rogers - John Rogers’ Ariel Fund Boosts US Silica Position 35%
John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), manager of the Ariel Fund, disclosed on Monday that the fund increased its U.S. Silica Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SLCA) position 35.16% on Aug. 31. More...

JOHN ROGERS, REAL-TIME PICKS, NEW FEATURE ANNOUNCEMENT


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John Rogers' Ariel Fund August Commentary Discussion of the month John Rogers - John Rogers' Ariel Fund August Commentary
Managing risk, as well as long term performance, is the signature element of Ariel’s international and global investment process. We seek to own out-of-favor, misunderstood or ignored companies with strong business models and sustainable growth relative to their overall risk profiles, which is further quantified by connecting industry trends with political and economic vulnerabilities. This proactive risk assessment led us to exit our Turkish holdings in early 2016, as perceived authoritarian domestic policies paired with a confluence of fiscal concerns, including a capital account deficit, high level of foreign currency debt and rising borrowing costs. In recent weeks these troubles culminated in a sharp plunge in Turkish lira as investor confidence in the country’s ability to manage its economy was shaken. The crisis also ignited fear that Turkey’s currency woes could ripple through the global financial markets, notably the nation’s largest lenders in Europe. Since Ariel’s strategies lack exposure to Turkey and European banks, we do not expect to see an adverse impact on our portfolios. The commentary that follows is intended to provide a background on the situation in Turkey and Ariel’s view on implications for the global economy: Turkish crisis has been brewing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) came into power in 2001, in the aftermath of a devastating financial crash and subsequent International Monetary Fund “IMF” bailout. His nationalistic administration consolidated control quickly and more recently has come under fire for alleged human rights violations and curtailed freedom of press. Nonetheless, the economy saw a tremendous recovery under its leadership, largely driven by major infrastructure investments in roads, airports and a high speed train network – all financed by a borrowing binge denominated in euros and dollars. Unfortunately, the incremental income generated by these projects has been insufficient to curb the debt burden. The country is susceptible to shifts in global capital markets Meanwhile, back in the United States, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to shrink its balance sheet in response to economic strength and warming inflation. Removing this money from the market has yielded a much stronger greenback and placed strain on emerging nations, like Turkey, which use local currencies to pay down their dollar-backed debt. Financing costs have also risen in Europe as the Central Bank continues to taper their asset purchase programs. In addition, Turkey is vulnerable to rising energy prices as it is a large importer of oil, which also happens to be priced in U.S. dollars. Turkey’s predicament extends beyond foreign-exchange With Turkey’s soaring foreign currency debt, large deficit, rising borrowing costs and surging inflation, investors have been selling the lira, which has fallen over 40% against the US dollar since the start of 2018. At the same time, Erdogan has been seizing greater control of the country’s monetary policy – refusing to raise interest rates to cool down the economy and stabilize the currency. After recently winning re-election, Erdogan installed his son-in-law as the finance minister, undercutting the independence and therefore credibility of the central bank. Further exacerbating the situation is a public spat between Turkey and the United States. Detaining an American pastor on disputed terrorism charges has led to U.S sanctions and double tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum. Bailout package is nowhere in sight The customary response for this type of economic collapse usually entails a financing program with the IMF, in exchange for meaningful changes in domestic policy. However, a return to the IMF would run counter to the political platform of his populist and nationalistic rise to power and likely be viewed as a betrayal to Turkish patriotism. Moreover, with the widening rift between the United States and Turkey, a United States led rescue is likely a non-starter. There are not many alternatives to the IMF that could materially satisfy Turkey’s funding needs. Not to mention, recent standoffs have fueled concerns of a foreign policy shift that would result in Turkey exiting NATO and forging stronger political ties with Russia, China and Iran. However, these new allies are unlikely to deliver the significant cash flow required. Meanwhile, Turkey did receive a $15 billion lifeline from Qatar, but without a major change in its economic agenda as well as monetary and fiscal policy – it is not enough. With or without a bailout, the issue is not whether Turkey is heading for a recession, but just how deep the recession will be. While the central bank has eased financing requirements for Turkish banks, we expect to see higher bankruptcies and corporate debt defaults, as well as greater demands for the government to support local banks and businesses, while protecting the most vulnerable segments of the population. Erdogan has insisted that Turkey remains committed to the principles of an open market, but given the situation, it’s quickly becoming clear that imposing capital controls may be the only way to provide some temporary respite. Emerging market contagion? Although Turkey’s issues, taken in isolation, should not have a big impact on the global economy, investors are nervously looking for signs of contagion. Emerging markets were already struggling with the prospect of trade wars and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Now elements of the crisis in Turkey reveal how developing economies, such as South Africa, Argentina and Mexico that took advantage of incredibly low interest rates in the United States and other developed markets may struggle to service their foreign-currency denominated debts in weakening local currencies. Even though these nations aren’t all that large relative to global GDP, signs of trouble or significantly weakened monetary reserves would trigger chain reactions in the financial markets that could have global repercussions. Although we have been negative on companies operating in emerging markets for many years, a major sell-off could provide the entry point we have been patiently waiting for. This commentary candidly discusses current market conditions. The conditions and our opinions are current as of the date of this commentary but are subject to change. Investments in foreign securities may underperform and may be more volatile than comparable U.S. stocks because of the risks involving foreign economies and markets, foreign political systems, foreign regulatory standards, and foreign currencies and taxes. More...

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Book Review: A Story of Money, Power and the Reshaping of American Business A review of the biography of Andre Meyer, which pertains to an interesting value investment candidate in Lazard John Rogers - Book Review: A Story Of Money, Power And The Reshaping Of American Business
Back in March, I wrote about John Rogers' Ariel Investments. Charles Bobrinksoy, who manages the focused value fund, currently doesn’t like names that are omnipresent in indexes. Instead, he likes names that aren’t in many indexes at all. More...

LONG, ASSET MANAGEMENT,


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Exclusive Interview: Ariel's Charlie Bobrinskoy Answers GuruFocus Reader Questions Noted investor of $13 billion firm discusses IBM, Ben Graham, what he wants to invest in and more John Rogers - Exclusive Interview: Ariel's Charlie Bobrinskoy Answers GuruFocus Reader Questions
GuruFocus readers asked Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chairman, head of investment group and portfolio manager, their questions about investing several weeks ago. Charlie has responded to the questions below. More...

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John Rogers Buys 3 Stocks in 2nd Quarter Patience-focused guru releases portfolio changes John Rogers - John Rogers Buys 3 Stocks In 2nd Quarter
John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), founder of Ariel Investments, disclosed purchasing only three new stocks in the second quarter, according to a portfolio update released Friday afternoon. More...

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John Rogers' Ariel Investments July Commentary Within the world of investing, if there is one concept we have all come to know, it is the notion of 'the bubble' John Rogers - John Rogers' Ariel Investments July Commentary
Within the world of investing, if there is one concept we have all come to know, it is the notion of “the bubble.” The only problem is that most bubbles are only truly understood once the damage is done. In recent years, we have seen some memorable bubbles come and go. However, the shadow of the infamous dot com bubble that jump started the new millennium only to come to a crashing halt looms especially large now, as the economy has experienced another era of remarkable growth in technology-based businesses led by the near vertical rise of FAANG – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. More...

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Ariel Funds Comments on CBS Corp Guru stock highlight
During the quarter, we initiated a position in CBS Corporation (NYSE:CBS), a leading entertainment company that is also held within Ariel Appreciation Fund. With its collection of valued media assets, growing retransmission fees for the right to carry the CBS signal, reverse compensation from its affiliates, video streaming deals, political advertising revenues, strong balance sheet, solid free cash flow generation and a seasoned management team focused on return on investment, we believe CBS is well positioned for continued growth. More...

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Ariel Funds Comments on BorgWarner Guru stock highlight
Leading supplier of solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles, BorgWarner, Inc. (NYSE:BWA) also weighed on performance, declining -13.78% in the quarter. Uncertainty around tariffs and concerns that we are at the peak of the automotive cycle have weighed on shares. Additionally, the CEO announced his retirement furthering investor skepticism. We continue to believe that BWA’s scale, global presence and leading edge technology properly position the company to deal with these potential issues. We expect the increased complexity required for auto manufacturers to meet higher fuel efficiency and lower emissions requirements worldwide to provide a tailwind to demand for BWA’s products. At current levels, the company is trading at 9.6x forward cash EPS and a 35% discount to our estimate of private market value. More...

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Ariel Funds Comments on J.M. Smucker Company Guru stock highlight
There were a few notable positions that detracted from our quarterly results. Branded food and beverage product company, J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) finished the period down -12.74%, after falling short of consensus expectations. Investors were also disappointed with the company’s full year 2019 guidance, which was mostly driven by higher than anticipated expenses. While we acknowledge increased marketing spend is necessary to support branded growth and Fiscal 2019 will be an investment year with lower than expected margins, we believe SJM has a portfolio of iconic, market leading brands that produce consistent returns. Additionally, SJM’s strong cash generation capabilities should continue to allow the company to deploy capital towards brand investment and business expansion initiatives, as well as return cash to shareholders. More...

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Ariel Funds Comments on Apache Corp Guru stock highlight
Energy company, Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) also benefitted quarterly performance, trading +22.22% higher on strong operational results and U.S. oil production that was above guidance. The outperformance in the United States was driven by a combination of shorter completion cycle times, improving efficiencies and excellent performance from new wells. The company’s international exposure to Brent oil pricing contributed to high margins, high cash returns and strong free cash flow. In our view, the performance was solid from an execution and cost-control standpoint, and we are encouraged that management sees continued momentum going forward. Additionally, a number of insiders purchased shares of APA during the quarter, highlighting confidence in the business outlook. More...

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Ariel Funds Comments on First American Financial Corp Guru stock highlight
Leading provider in specialty industrial services, Team, Inc. (NYSE:TISI) also advanced considerably in the quarter, jumping +68.00% after posting year-over-year growth in revenues, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Management believes the market is showing signs of improvement, as the Inspection and Heat Treating segment was stretched during the quarter due to growth in large project activity levels and expanded scopes. TISI is also rapidly deploying a new regional, cross-segment operating model that is expected to increase revenues, improve efficiency and decrease overall operating expenditures. The model should align responsibility for all services and products, promote cross selling and optimize resource allocations across locations to leverage the size and scale of the enterprise. More...

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John Rogers Comments on First American Financial Corp Guru stock highlight
Title insurer, First American Financial Corporation (NYSE:FAF) also weighed on quarterly performance, falling -11.22%. FAF reported mixed results for the seasonally unimportant quarter relative to Wall Street expectations as strong purchase and commercial revenues were not enough to neutralize the headwind from the decline in re-finances. Nonetheless, management remained optimistic about the outlook for the spring selling season and full year 2018. FAF expects the ongoing economic expansion and current trends in the housing market to yield further growth in new home sales and noted that the commercial business has a healthy pipeline of activity and should continue to benefit from rising investment income. Looking forward, we believe the market continues to underappreciate FAF’s scale and operating leverage and think there continues to be a long runway for earnings and intrinsic value growth. More...

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John Rogers Comments on Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Guru stock highlight
Global cruise vacation company, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) also underperformed, trading -11.51% lower in the period, despite continued strength in the company’s earnings growth. Concerns around the industry’s supply and demand dynamics, primarily in the Caribbean, have resulted in heightened sensitivity around pricing. The increase in fuel prices has also been an area of focus since it is a major component in the company’s cost structure. Meanwhile, RCL continues to reiterate that it is not experiencing any issues between the supply and demand relationship and that it has an expertise in managing volatile oil prices. The company also continues to generate significant free cash flow, with expectations of over $ 1.0 billion per year from 2019 forward. At current levels, RCL trades at a 27% discount to our estimate of private market value. More...

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John Rogers Comments on J.M. Smucker Company Guru stock highlight
Alternatively, there were a few notable performance detractors in the period. Branded food and beverage product company, J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) finished the quarter down -12.74%, after falling short of consensus expectations. Investors were also disappointed with the company’s full year 2019 guidance, which was mostly driven by higher than anticipated expenses. While we acknowledge increased marketing spend is necessary to support branded growth and Fiscal 2019 will be an investment year with lower than expected margins, we believe SJM has a portfolio of iconic, market leading brands that produce consistent returns. Additionally, SJM’s strong cash generation capabilities should continue to allow the company to deploy capital towards brand investment and business expansion initiatives, as well as return cash to shareholders. More...

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John Rogers Comments on Mattel Inc. Guru stock highlight
Toy manufacturer, Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) was another top contributor, jumping +24.87% in the period. MAT continues to make progress executing on the turnaround strategy to stabilize revenues, reduce costs and ultimately improve profitability. Excluding the impact of the Toys “R” Us liquidation, the company posted positive worldwide gross sales growth driven by strong momentum in its key power brands, with Barbie® and Hot Wheels® each up double-digits in the quarter. Inventory was well managed and MAT eliminated the liquidity overhang on shares by amending and extending a long term debt maturity and using the proceeds to prepay a note that was due near term. Additionally, MAT appointed a new CEO, Ynon Kreiz, who has over 20 years of experience in the media and entertainment industries. In our view, MAT has the right people in place to deliver on its strategic imperatives. That said, we realize change does not happen overnight and we are keeping a close eye on indicators that highlight continued execution. In the meantime, shares are trading at a substantial discount to our estimate of private market value, and although we project More...

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John Rogers Comments on KKR & Co. L.P. Guru stock highlight
Alternative asset manager, KKR & Co. L.P. (NYSE:KKR) also increased considerably in the quarter, posting a +23.36% gain. KKR delivered an earnings beat and to attract new investors, the company announced that it would be converting to a corporation from a partnership, effective July 1, 2018. In our view, this change simplifies the structure, broadens investor appeal, and translates to possible inclusion in the major indexes. More...

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John Rogers Comments on The Madison Square Garden Company Guru stock highlight
Several stocks in the portfolio had strong returns in the quarter. Leading live sports and entertainment company, The Madison Square Garden Company (NYSE:MSG) advanced +26.20%, driven by both strong earnings and an announcement that the company is exploring a possible spin-off to separate the sports team assets from its live entertainment focused businesses. If MSG proceeds with this transaction, James L. Dolan is expected to remain Executive Chairman and CEO of both resulting entities. We believe the proposed plan would further create value for shareholders, by enhancing the strategic flexibility and capital allocation options for each company. More...

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Charles Bobrinskoy's 2nd Quarter Ariel Focus Fund Shareholder Letter Discussion of holdings and markets John Rogers - Charles Bobrinskoy's 2nd Quarter Ariel Focus Fund Shareholder Letter
Supported by relatively stable global growth, strong earnings fundamentals and U.S. tax reform, the current bull cycle weathered another quarter of volatility. Investor concerns around trade tensions, geopolitical issues, increasingly tight monetary conditions in the U.S. and rising inflationary pressures took center stage. As a result, the domestically focused U.S. small-cap Russell 2000 Value Index posted a +8.30% return, significantly outperforming its large-cap peer, the S&P 500 Index, which increased +3.43%. International equities struggled in the quarter as the MSCI EAFE Index declined -1.24%. For the quarter the Ariel Focus Fund traded +2.80% higher, which was significantly better than the Russell 1000 Value Index’s +1.18% gain, but trailed the S&P 500 Index’s +3.43% return. More...

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John Rogers' Ariel Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary Discussion of holdings and market John Rogers - John Rogers' Ariel Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary
Investing in small- and mid-cap stocks is riskier and more volatile than investing in large-cap stocks. The intrinsic value of the stocks in which the Fund invests may never be recognized by the broader market. Ariel Fund is often concentrated in fewer sectors than its benchmarks, and its performance may suffer if these sectors underperform the overall stock market. More...

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