David Rolfe Comments on Mead Johnson - Apr 14, 2017

During the quarter, we liquidated our position in Mead Johnson (NYSE:MJN) after we determined the growth and competitive positioning of the business would be challenged for the next several years. In addition, the Company reached an agreement to be acquired by the European CPG firm, Reckitt Benckiser. A substantial portion of Mead Johnson’s growth in revenues and profits is derived from China, where a confluence of factors over the past few years have blunted the Company’s competitive advantage. First, the barriers to entry for Mead’s competition in China have fallen. While Mead has a well-established position in China’s traditional distribution channels, the Country’s emerging e-commerce channel has facilitated a booming “gray” market with Europe, where the Company has very little presence. Mead’s competitors in Europe have a much stronger value proposition than Chinese-based competitors. Second, China has become much less hospitable from a competitive standpoint. The rules and regulations that the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) have erected to prevent gray market expansion were, ostensibly, put in place to protect businesses that directly invested in the country’s local manufacturing and distribution—particularly to help raise quality and safety standards. While Mead has invested heavily in China, we think the returns from these investments will be much less attractive, now that the NDRC has failed to protect (and in some cases, actively undermined) those investments. Given our lack of conviction in the ability of the Company to post attractive, long-term, double-digit growth relative to a mediocre valuation, we decided it prudent to find a more attractive opportunity.

From David Rolfe (Trades, Portfolio)'s Wedgewood Partners first-quarter 2017 shareholder letter.

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David Rolfe Comments on Mead Johnson - Oct 15, 2015

Mead Johnson (NYSE:MJN) was another stock we incrementally added to during the quarter. We think news of increased price competition in the Chinese infant formula market is related to short-term distribution channel shifts, while the market perceives it as a threat to MJN's long-term earnings power. Importantly, we think very little of Mead Johnson's long-term value-added stems from manipulating channel economics. Instead, we think MJN's roughly, century-old track record of producing safe and scientifically differentiated infant formula continues to offer exceptional value relative to unproven, albeit cheaper, competing products - particularly in markets with less developed food supplies.

We estimate that up to about a third of Mead Johnson's revenues are derived from Chinese mainland demand, with the Company supplying this market through four distribution channels. While that strikes us as being a particularly inefficient way to serve a market, we have thus far concluded it to be a necessary evil, more reflective of consumer culture and preference, and less indicative of any sort of supply-driven logic. Regardless, Mead Johnson continues to invest in its Chinese distribution efforts, especially given recent changes related to the easing of China's notorious family planning (e.g. "one child") policies, which could well likely open the door to an expanding addressable market. With shares trading near historically attractive levels relative to MJN's earnings prospects, we added to positions.

From David Rolfe (Trades, Portfolio)'s Wedgewood Partners third quarter 2015 letter.

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