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AutoNation (AutoNation) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $180.80 (As of Dec23)


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What is AutoNation Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Dec23, AutoNation's earnings power value is $180.80. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is 11.29

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


AutoNation Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

AutoNation Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

AutoNation Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 28.66 53.86 100.80 148.61 180.80

AutoNation Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 148.61 161.68 170.54 182.76 180.80

Competitive Comparison of AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



AutoNation Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

AutoNation's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 24,301
DDA 199
Operating Margin % 5.88
SGA * 25% 707
Tax Rate % 24.45
Maintenance Capex 224
Cash and Cash Equivalents 61
Short-Term Debt 4,294
Long-Term Debt 3,741
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 43

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 5.88%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $24,301 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 5.88%, Average Adjusted SGA = 707,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 24,301 * 5.88% +707 = $2135.9303432 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 24.45%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $2135.9303432 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 2135.9303432 * ( 1 - 24.45% ) = $1613.641976029 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 199 * 0.5 * 24.45% = $24.29355875 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 1613.641976029 + 24.29355875 = $1637.935534779 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
AutoNation's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $224 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. AutoNation's current cash and cash equivalent = $61 Mil.
AutoNation's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 3,741 + 4,294 = $8034.3 Mil.
AutoNation's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 43 Mil.

AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 1637.935534779 - 224)/ 9%+61-8034.3 )/43
=180.80

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 180.79702356672-160.38 )/180.79702356672
= 11.29%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


AutoNation  (NYSE:AN) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


AutoNation Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AutoNation's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


AutoNation (AutoNation) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 SW 1st Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33301
AutoNation is the second largest automotive dealer in the United States, with 2022 revenue of $27 billion and over 250 dealerships, plus 53 collision centers. The firm also has 16 AutoNation USA used-vehicle stores, a captive lender, four auction sites, and three parts distributors all across 20 states primarily in Sunbelt metropolitan areas. New-vehicle sales account for nearly half of revenue; the company also sells used vehicles, parts, and repair services as well as auto financing. The company (formerly Republic Industries) spun off its waste management unit (Republic Services) in 1999 and its car rental businesses (ANC Rental) in 2000. Wayne Huizenga founded the company in the 1990s to bring the rollup acquisition strategy to auto retailing, which has proved to be a smart move.
Executives
Edward S Lampert director, 10 percent owner 1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOUR FL 33154
Jeff Parent officer: COO 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Mikan George Lawrence Iii director 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Robert R Grusky director C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC, 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD, HERNDON VA 20171
Edmunds C Coleman officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Thomas A Szlosek other: EVP & CFO HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC., 115 TABOR ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Joseph T Lower officer: EVP & CFO 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Michael Mark Manley director, officer: CEO and Director 1000 CHRYSLER DRIVE, CIMS 485-09-96, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Marc G Cannon officer: CMO & SVP, Communications 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Kimberly Dees officer: SVP & CAO 200 SW 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Lisa Esparza officer: EVP and CHIEF HR OFFICER 200 SW 1ST AVENUE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Gianluca Camplone officer: COO Prec Parts & EVP Mobility 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Christopher Cade officer: VP and CAO 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Steve Kwak officer: COO Franchised Business 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Jacqueline A Travisano director 200 SW 1ST AVE, SUITE 1600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301