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The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $15.72 (As of Sep22)
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As of Sep22, The Walt Disney Co's earnings power value is $15.72. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -611.28

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


The Walt Disney Co Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Walt Disney Co Annual Data
Trend Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 50.16 30.13 25.06 22.03 15.72

The Walt Disney Co Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.03 21.57 19.59 18.23 15.72

Competitive Comparison

For the Entertainment subindustry, The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

The Walt Disney Co Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Earnings Power Value (EPV)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



The Walt Disney Co Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

The Walt Disney Co's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 68,913
DDA 4,559
Operating Margin % 12.16
SGA * 25% 3,134
Tax Rate % 18.93
Maintenance Capex 3,582
Cash and Cash Equivalents 11,615
Short-Term Debt 3,070
Long-Term Debt 48,538
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 1,827

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 12.16%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $68,913 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 12.16%, Average Adjusted SGA = 3,134,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 68,913 * 12.16% +3,134 = $11513.330306 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 18.93%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $11513.330306 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 11513.330306 * ( 1 - 18.93% ) = $9333.7417457711 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 4,559 * 0.5 * 18.93% = $431.570007 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 9333.7417457711 + 431.570007 = $9765.3117527711 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
The Walt Disney Co's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $3,582 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. The Walt Disney Co's current cash and cash equivalent = $11,615 Mil.
The Walt Disney Co's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 48,538 + 3,070 = $51608 Mil.
The Walt Disney Co's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 1,827 Mil.

The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 9765.3117527711 - 3,582)/ 9%+11,615-51608 )/1,827
=15.72

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 15.715397754492-111.78 )/15.715397754492
= -611.28%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


The Walt Disney Co  (NYSE:DIS) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


The Walt Disney Co Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Walt Disney Co's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Business Description

The Walt Disney Co logo
Address
500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, CA, USA, 91521
Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney shifted into a more streaming-focused firm by acquiring the remainder of Hulu and launching Disney+ and ESPN+. Across its streaming platforms, Disney had over 235 million subscribers as of September 2022, up sharply from under 64 million in December 2019.
Executives
Carolyn Everson director C/O THE HERTZ CORPORATION, 225 BRAE BOULEVARD, PARK RIDGE NJ 07656-0713
Kristina K Schake officer: Sr. EVP and Chief Comm Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Horacio E Gutierrez officer: Sr EVP, General Counsel & Secy 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Geoff Morrell officer: SEVP Chf Corp Affairs Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Paul J Richardson officer: Sr. EVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Amy Chang director 2100 SEAPORT BLVD., C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Calvin Mcdonald director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Robert A Chapek officer: Chief Executive Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521
Maria Elena Lagomasino director 345 PARK AVENUE 5TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10154
Mark G Parker director ONE BOWERMAN DR, BEAVERTON OR 97005
Mary T Barra director 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Froman Michael B. G. director 2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Alan N Braverman officer: Sr EVP, General Counsel & Secy 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA ST, BURBANK CA 91521-1030
Christine M Mccarthy officer: SEVP-Chief Financial Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-0964
Mary Jayne Parker officer: SEVP and Chief HR Officer 500 SOUTH BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-0966

The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Headlines

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