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Avis Budget Group Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-2,693.14 (As of Jun21)
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As of Jun21, Avis Budget Group's earnings power value is $-2,693.14. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Avis Budget Group Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Avis Budget Group Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1,352.31 -1,340.04 -1,574.98 -1,955.06 -2,878.14

Avis Budget Group Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2,750.87 -2,807.31 -2,878.14 -2,899.34 -2,693.14

Competitive Comparison

For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Avis Budget Group Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Avis Budget Group Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Avis Budget Group's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 8,165
DDA 2,486
Operating Margin % 4.40
SGA * 25% 265
Tax Rate % -1,128.84
Maintenance Capex 9,335
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,324
Short-Term Debt 516
Long-Term Debt 16,632
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 71

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 4.40%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 4.40%, Average Adjusted SGA = 265,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 8,165 * 4.40% +265 = $624.742024 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -1,128.84%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $624.742024 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 624.742024 * ( 1 - -1,128.84% ) = $7677.0548980406 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 2,486 * 0.5 * -1,128.84% = $-14030.302644 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 7677.0548980406 + -14030.302644 = $-6353.2477459594 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Avis Budget Group's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $9,335 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Avis Budget Group's current cash and cash equivalent = $1,324 Mil.
Avis Budget Group's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 16,632 + 516 = $17148 Mil.
Avis Budget Group's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 71 Mil.

Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -6353.2477459594 - 9,335)/ 9%+1,324-17148 )/71
=-2,693.14

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -2693.1386443121-167.97 )/-2693.1386443121
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Avis Budget Group  (NAS:CAR) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Avis Budget Group Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Avis Budget Group's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Avis Budget Group Business Description

Avis Budget Group logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 532111 SIC : 7514
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6 Sylvan Way, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054
Avis Budget Group Inc is a provider of automotive vehicle rental and car-sharing services. Its brands include Avis, Budget, and Zipcar. Avis is targeted to serve the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry, while Budget is focused on value-conscious customers. The company operates its own network of rental locations and licenses its brands to franchisees. Zipcar is a car-sharing service that allows members to use the company-owned Zipcar fleet at an hourly rate. The company's largest region by revenue is the Americas.
Executives
Ferraro Joseph A. officer: President and CEO 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Martins Izilda P officer: EVP, Americas 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Sarma Karthik R. director, 10 percent owner ONE BRYANT PARK 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Srs Investment Management, Llc director, 10 percent owner 1 BRYANT PARK 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Hees Bernardo director, officer: Executive Chairman C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200 PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Choi Brian J officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O SRS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC ONE BRYANT PARK, 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Rankin Patrick K officer: President, International 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Lurie Glenn director C/O SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. 200 CROSSING BLVD. BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Sparks Carl director 4315 NORTHAVEN ROAD DALLAS TX 75229
Krominga Lynn director 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
North John F officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 150 N. BARTLETT STREET MEDFORD OR 97501
Sera Jean M officer: SVP, GC & Corp. Sec. AVIS BUDGET GROUP 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Fox Jeffrey H director ONE ALLIED DRIVE LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Salerno F Robert director AVIS RENT A CAR INC 900 OLD COUNTRY RD GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Degenova Cathleen officer: Chief Accounting Officer 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054

Avis Budget Group Headlines

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