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Forward Industries Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $0.85 (As of Jun21)
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As of Jun21, Forward Industries's earnings power value is $0.85. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -100.02

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Forward Industries Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Forward Industries Annual Data
Trend Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.60 2.27 2.07 1.36 0.98

Forward Industries Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.11 0.98 1.00 0.88 0.85

Competitive Comparison

For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Forward Industries Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Forward Industries Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Forward Industries's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 33.18
DDA 0.22
Operating Margin % -2.16
SGA * 25% 1.76
Tax Rate % -19.04
Maintenance Capex 0.06
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1.61
Short-Term Debt 0.38
Long-Term Debt 5.25
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 10.51

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -2.16%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = -2.16%, Average Adjusted SGA = 1.76,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 33.18 * -2.16% +1.76 = $1.04736664 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -19.04%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $1.04736664 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 1.04736664 * ( 1 - -19.04% ) = $1.2467957219224 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 0.22 * 0.5 * -19.04% = $-0.020830854 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 1.2467957219224 + -0.020830854 = $1.2259648679224 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Forward Industries's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $0.06 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Forward Industries's current cash and cash equivalent = $1.61 Mil.
Forward Industries's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 5.25 + 0.38 = $5.627 Mil.
Forward Industries's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 10.51 Mil.

Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 1.2259648679224 - 0.06)/ 9%+1.61-5.627 )/10.51
=0.85

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 0.85490437016857-1.71 )/0.85490437016857
= -100.02%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Forward Industries  (NAS:FORD) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Forward Industries Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Forward Industries's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Forward Industries Business Description

Forward Industries logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
700 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 100, Hauppauge, New York, NY, USA, 11788
Forward Industries Inc is a provider of carrying and protective solutions. It designs and distributes product protection for handheld electronic devices. Forward Industries sells soft-sided carrying cases for blood glucose diagnostic kits and portable consumer electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, personal computers, notebooks, and Global Positioning System devices. It also offers bags, clips, hand straps, protective plates, and other accessories made of leather, nylon, vinyl, plastic, PVC, and other synthetic materials. It operates in two segments: distribution and design. The company sells its products globally and generates its revenue from the sale of protective solutions for diabetic products. It generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
Maiman Mitchell officer: President of Subsidiary 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Terence Bernard Wise director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HWY, #100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Severino Paul Jean officer: COO of Subsidiary 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Camarda Anthony officer: Chief Financial Officer 700 VETERANS HWY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Shah Sangita director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 477 ROSEMARY AVE., STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Morgan Howard J director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 3110 MAIN STREET, SUITE 400 SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Ziglar James W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ZIGLAR JAMES W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Matthews Douglas David officer: Sr VP/Chief Operating Officer 477 S. ROSEMARY AVE. SUITE 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Yu Jenny P. 10 percent owner 9255 DOHENY ROAD APT. 2905 WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Frost James M director 477 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Fine N Scott director 600 3RD AVE NEW YORK NY 10016
Hrynkow Sharon director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 477 ROSEMARY AVE., STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Luetkemeyer Michael L. director 411 LANDMARK DRIVE WILMINGTON NC 28412
Matte Michael D officer: Chief Financial Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MATTE MICHAEL D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Freitag Eric director 477 ROSEMARY AVE. STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
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